Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $112K in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa38dbea5487bc37e13e36d9c2996be15c8df043b88025be31c4dc0e98deaa5f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed No | 9c | 23,006$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.89 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 10c | 10,689$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.44 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 7c | 6,269$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.23 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 10c | 5,084$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.35 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 11c | 4,357$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.08 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1cfabacked No | 10c | 2,656$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.56 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 8c | 2,606$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…1eedbacked No | 8c | 2,023$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked No | 8c | 1,668$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,535$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 6c | 1,199$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…b2d3backed No | 6c | 1,130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…ff11backed No | 20c | 981.19$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…4db0backed No | 7c | 767.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked No | 3c | 515$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 15c | 344.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…dd68backed No | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…aebfbacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed No | 6c | 191.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 103 | 0%0 W · 103 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…4f8bbacked No | 6c | 162.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 10c | 150.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3c14backed No | 14c | 97.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…c5cabacked No | 20c | 50.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…b412backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…42a7backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $112K in September?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110K in September?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114K in September?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116K in September?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.