TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,632,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,729,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,632,401 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes14c82,658$11,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,377.495034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes2c37,684$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.9160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes17c37,275$6,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,490.2611316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes4c34,336$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.63911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes1c33,193$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.039913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes14c30,458$4,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,409.2287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes19c28,491$5,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,454.034736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed No79c25,305$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,305.39757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9deb…8108backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes5c22,151$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes9c21,955$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.29432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes1c20,714$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%0 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes21c20,148$4,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,188.514337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c19,883$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.028010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8490…aee4backed Yes1c19,289$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f8…8d75backed No78c18,232$14,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,087.851216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No77c17,904$13,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,174.175662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes20c16,066$3,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,248.0263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0926…51dabacked Yes22c15,974$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,554.75119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-86%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c15,005$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.151360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x092c…667fbacked Yes1c14,521$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes29c14,041$4,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No76c12,990$9,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,076.532065%13 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes8c12,000$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.61319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf841…ff2bbacked Yes1c10,668$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…1d80backed Yes18c10,392$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.213732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes3c10,250$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2826425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53fe…067dbacked Yes1c10,225$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a19…c9e3backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe714…bd2dbacked Yes31c9,528$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes25c8,990$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.9715023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes5c8,767$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.211024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5791…266dbacked No77c8,020$6,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.69475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,988$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.541,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No76c7,769$5,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.310545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ddf…b6f5backed Yes2c7,427$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes0c7,403$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.218713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes17c6,993$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.1158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…fdbcbacked Yes7c6,609$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No79c6,365$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.241070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6306…852abacked Yes8c6,088$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.582222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6b…d1cabacked Yes20c6,000$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5c…a435backed Yes1c5,983$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed No77c5,578$4,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.46053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes17c5,525$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.2137745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d5…72ffbacked Yes20c5,250$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0501618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd782…9285backed Yes1c4,613$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6c…f842backed Yes18c4,496$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.2760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe393…7158backed Yes10c4,400$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes24c4,122$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.19130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd78…dcd8backed No79c4,102$3,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.371250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed No73c4,085$2,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.798100%8 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes1c4,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes26c3,967$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.0811554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes15c3,901$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5893336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd07b…1898backed No76c3,857$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.49955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9c…a7abbacked Yes1c3,857$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2770%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06b2…9f35backed Yes23c3,492$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes18c3,335$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.6322216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5426…1339backed Yes4c3,312$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120290%0 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes5c3,097$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.69478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd091…4715backed Yes0c3,036$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes3c2,945$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a0…944ebacked Yes20c2,820$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a2…5e16backed Yes18c2,731$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes7c2,677$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No79c2,527$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.497767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce7b…7677backed Yes25c2,522$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.954617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3eb…8d3ebacked No77c2,099$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.841080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde56…4c7abacked Yes27c1,832$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-71.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9399…e1f8backed Yes23c1,739$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeec0…37c1backed Yes2c1,735$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.49220%0 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes18c1,679$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.438116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes21c1,678$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.294555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xec8b…3c19backed Yes23c1,530$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.48650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9e…c707backed Yes10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc87…2765backed No73c1,500$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes30c1,458$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.362832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbe…1c89backed Yes25c1,418$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3551931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Yes23c1,334$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.521315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x160a…ffa2backed Yes4c1,306$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Yes9c1,300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe93b…ac2ebacked No79c1,258$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.134100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8252…e65cbacked Yes16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes17c1,200$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe470…b6e2backed Yes27c1,164$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes2c1,066$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211030%0 W · 103 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes25c1,040$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe2…87c5backed No76c1,036$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.854759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d1…fd35backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-83.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff62…1148backed No70c999.99$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+34.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3370…0757backed No78c999.99$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2204100%4 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x457d…0f36backed Yes13c962.2$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.66185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-90.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes7c950$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No80c916.81$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.5155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked No75c855.76$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0782…069fbacked Yes24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1284…bbcdbacked Yes4c825.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.