Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x283b245a675129361a9a35cfc6449d565e597be03dc1163fd5c3eba2742a21fc

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 1, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $596,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $700,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $596,908 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes	1c	54,102$793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$792.72	119	8.4%10 W · 109 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+90.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes	4c	28,124$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100.26	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+120.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes	10c	24,724$2,415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,415.16	222	16.2%36 W · 186 L	-14.9wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14b2…2642backed Yes	5c	19,716$963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.17	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes	12c	11,359$1,349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,349.08	150	23.3%35 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bbb…16abbacked Yes	9c	11,000$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes	13c	10,977$1,465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,464.53	113	16.8%19 W · 94 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a05…5c62backed Yes	6c	9,613$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.75	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	9,406$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.15	1,844	4.4%81 W · 1,763 L	-13.1wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes	2c	8,841$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.5	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2f…1f59backed Yes	3c	8,000$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c16…45e9backed Yes	3c	8,000$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes	2c	6,645$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.28	351	23.9%84 W · 267 L	+15.9wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40da…2fe1backed Yes	12c	6,500$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f6…86a2backed Yes	14c	4,500$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x374d…9f76backed Yes	4c	3,856$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes	4c	3,664$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.25	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+63.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes	11c	3,450$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e7…d258backed Yes	13c	3,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes	1c	3,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.2	64	25%16 W · 48 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes	2c	2,641$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	110	5.5%6 W · 104 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes	3c	2,500$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.5	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	+13.9wins	+0.20per pick	29cpaid	+58.8%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xd0da…a1bcbacked Yes	17c	2,432$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x482f…02cabacked Yes	18c	2,389$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+96.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes	1c	2,288$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	94	0%0 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes	7c	2,166$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.97	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d92…b63dbacked Yes	7c	2,149$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes	2c	2,079$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	234	11.1%26 W · 208 L	+9.2wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.98	32	0%0 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc8…734dbacked Yes	1c	1,746$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes	13c	1,649$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.62	550	32.5%179 W · 371 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd515…14febacked Yes	2c	1,571$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.16	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c80…d6f3backed Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-88.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x976f…77ddbacked Yes	19c	1,500$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	+54.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes	4c	1,113$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.42	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcce8…df43backed Yes	3c	1,085$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.05	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69de…9dfebacked Yes	13c	1,079$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa65e…a8b0backed Yes	4c	1,078$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	42	7.1%3 W · 39 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeac6…6cf8backed Yes	8c	999.97$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.3	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Yes	10c	960$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes	7c	915.91$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.03	878	28.4%249 W · 629 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes	13c	850.01$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.5	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd031…b594backed Yes	19c	794.12$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	39	41%16 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes	15c	712.45$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.09	75	40%30 W · 45 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc36b…c38dbacked Yes	20c	645.5$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	13cpaid	+108.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed Yes	3c	599.87$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+5.8wins	+0.25per pick	14cpaid	+155.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa12c…15c5backed Yes	4c	526.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes	4c	499.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes	11c	449.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	36cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x226d…4142backed Yes	23c	420.52$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…5615backed Yes	7c	397.52$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.41	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a5…b29fbacked No	76c	328.91$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.09	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa30a…6339backed Yes	4c	295$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa8d…d536backed Yes	4c	292.68$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa663…438dbacked Yes	17c	280$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe223…3411backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	75	37.3%28 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a90…f319backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	+104%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes	17c	199.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x428e…b901backed Yes	17c	199$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.83	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe317…94f8backed Yes	8c	197.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed Yes	20c	188$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.36	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…ce22backed Yes	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes	25c	167.91$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.98	305	31.1%95 W · 210 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb71c…dd68backed No	80c	150$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No	79c	119.99$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	116	58.6%68 W · 48 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5874…05f7backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	87	65.5%57 W · 30 L	+7.8wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	22c	88.53$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes	19c	75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No	80c	54.24$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.85	157	54.8%86 W · 71 L	+8.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x659a…60ebbacked No	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September?this page
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in September?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $112K in September?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $114K in September?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $116K in September?Yes won
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September?No won
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event