TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,105,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$928,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,105,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea0a…8340backed Yes2c93,000$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes1c48,000$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6386425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes5c46,904$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.3111316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe285…f9a4backed Yes1c40,778$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c30,645$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.65180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes4c25,274$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1379913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes5c20,503$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.424736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c19,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes5c18,971$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.322216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2161…f852backed Yes5c18,729$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes1c16,759$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d5…df2fbacked Yes8c13,237$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes3c11,776$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.3375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes0c10,977$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%0 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes5c10,114$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.68130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x670c…d5fabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40da…2fe1backed Yes6c10,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes4c9,491$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.7325824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c9,195$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.181,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes5c8,860$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.167810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd2…0261backed Yes3c8,251$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a05…5c62backed Yes5c8,203$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa652…6f8fbacked Yes5c7,255$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd281…d750backed Yes5c6,605$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c6,416$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5823411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf89…700dbacked Yes0c6,221$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f6…86a2backed Yes5c5,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6434…535ebacked Yes0c5,339$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe393…7158backed Yes1c5,128$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.81520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes4c5,095$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.286311.1%7 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+519.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c6c…f842backed Yes4c4,811$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa1…ffb7backed Yes4c4,795$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes4c4,651$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes6c4,549$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.62590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c4,497$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.221333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x383f…7360backed Yes4c4,433$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.76560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+125.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1284…bbcdbacked Yes1c4,286$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ca4…acd5backed Yes3c4,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes3c3,685$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.318116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes4c3,648$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1030…8a52backed Yes4c3,459$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c8…832abacked Yes5c3,404$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes3c3,221$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+97.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a21…0ec8backed Yes3c3,123$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf21a…b6e3backed Yes7c2,857$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7222…bbeabacked Yes5c2,798$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf712…4bd0backed Yes1c2,643$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x457d…0f36backed Yes1c2,518$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-90.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes4c2,515$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa73…7361backed Yes4c2,308$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce8…df43backed Yes3c2,279$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.582412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6743…288ebacked Yes5c2,174$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4609…4fdcbacked Yes6c2,104$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d5…4346backed Yes7c2,100$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14770%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes5c2,070$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771b…fe69backed Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe4c…eda2backed Yes4c2,000$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2139…e346backed Yes1c1,950$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x837b…e8bebacked Yes4c1,793$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692313%3 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…da7ebacked Yes5c1,785$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.934617.4%8 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05c6…f378backed Yes5c1,480$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8f…5333backed Yes6c1,363$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Yes4c1,300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ad…46c9backed Yes7c1,277$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes2c1,273$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211030%0 W · 103 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes8c1,239$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes3c1,236$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4813561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a38…360bbacked Yes4c1,230$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.861165.2%6 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes4c1,147$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3971…f876backed Yes7c1,143$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes1c1,139$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.955617.9%10 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47ee…4ab8backed Yes6c1,059$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ea…7fc0backed Yes4c1,033$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes2c1,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc72d…320fbacked Yes4c1,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3780%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a19…c9e3backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb545…6699backed Yes5c986.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes4c849.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.66432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40d5…e937backed Yes2c833.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3e…4886backed Yes4c802.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Yes6c769.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50140%0 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74ed…9725backed Yes4c634.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes3c599.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.453751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x339f…fa6bbacked Yes5c591.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad1e…d08cbacked Yes4c581.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdb…aad8backed Yes4c567.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb472…9436backed Yes4c541.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…82ebbacked Yes6c509.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-69.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked Yes4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-53%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0892…48d8backed Yes3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16160%0 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes3c494.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.691643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick29cpaid-16.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89d1…ae28backed Yes4c490$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.09850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes3c486.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.08280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc4…3a36backed Yes4c463.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-75.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e4…e73dbacked Yes4c454.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd448…a724backed Yes5c408.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505d…7d62backed Yes6c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22439.3%4 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed Yes7c395$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.612114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-72.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.