TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x905d…ada9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Premier League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST1850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fulham FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+117.4%+$29.35
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$12.55
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+66.7%+$20
Will Leeds United FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+203%+$40.61
Will Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+78.6%+$18.07
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+300%+$49.77
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+88.7%+$13.3
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+300%+$41.07
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$69
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+257.1%+$48.6
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+104.1%+$31.22
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$150.78
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Knicks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Nuggets vs. Mavericksbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Magic vs. Warriorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Pacers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+52%+$46.75
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$26.68
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolvesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+63.9%+$45.28
Spread: Heat (-6.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$81.44
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+86.4%+$43.21
All 11 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Virtus.pro (BO3)backed Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$33
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+270.4%+$48.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+43.6%+$43.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.