NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd855324fc33233b3eb0c4bbfb489af5067806dd611dd229715fd626a8fd8bb

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Raptorsof Heat, Raptors
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,973 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	47c	5,789$2,747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,747.22	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Raptors	53c	3,495$1,852 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,642.73	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Raptors	51c	1,983$1,011 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$971.6	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	46c	1,579$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.73	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Raptors	54c	1,573$850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$723.31	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	47c	980$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.03	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Heat	47c	703.01$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.88	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed Raptors	53c	657.66$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.1	277	45.8%127 W · 150 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Raptors	53c	600$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282	250	39.6%99 W · 151 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623c…dde0backed Heat	48c	500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Heat	48c	500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Raptors	53c	370.21$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174	143	56.6%81 W · 62 L	+9.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x890a…093cbacked Raptors	53c	306.23$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.93	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6870…5826backed Raptors	54c	300$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137	548	53.8%295 W · 253 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Raptors	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	75	44%33 W · 42 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Raptors	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Heat	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Raptors	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Heat	47c	170.21$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x905d…ada9backed Heat	51c	159.69$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.44	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad8b…2ea2backed Heat	49c	134$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.66	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Raptors	53c	113.21$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.21	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Raptors	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Raptors	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	628	48.7%306 W · 322 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Raptors	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b20…7c67backed Raptors	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	195	52.8%103 W · 92 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Heat	47c	88.94$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.23	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Raptors	50c	72$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.72	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat	47c	68.71$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.38	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Raptors	54c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors	49c	59.69$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.44	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Raptors	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Raptors	53c	52.83$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.83	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Raptors	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-4.6wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e3d…73e7backed Heat	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Raptors	52c	39.58$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e97…99afbacked Heat	48c	39.58$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Raptors	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	234	45.7%107 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d23…b5a2backed Raptors	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Raptors	57c	36$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.48	95	60%57 W · 38 L	+10.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	45c	31.02$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed Heat	47c	29.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Heat	48c	25.15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Heat	47c	22.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat	51c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event