NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 235.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52935010a79929654f624b30ff470d2c24f28b3198e588c288b68ab237f57057

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $113,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $114,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,414 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Under	52c	51,084$26,689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,394.92	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	22,404$10,643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,643.09	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Over	48c	18,197$8,735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,734.76	148	56.1%83 W · 65 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Under	55c	12,034$6,619 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,415.2	262	53.8%141 W · 121 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	48c	9,397$4,515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,515.38	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf08d…d6c1backed Over	50c	5,800$2,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,900	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Over	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,450	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Under	50c	4,503$2,251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,251.34	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over	49c	4,065$2,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,010	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	46c	3,306$1,515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,515.36	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under	51c	2,549$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,249.02	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under	52c	2,500$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	48c	2,337$1,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,130.95	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	47c	919$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.68	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	47c	831$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.75	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea5…6696backed Over	46c	707$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.22	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.1wins	-0.42per pick	62cpaid	-72.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Under	51c	685$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.65	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	49c	638.98$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.17	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	20c	598.43$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.47	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	9c	505.27$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.03	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	47c	500$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	46c	484$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.21	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…4741backed Under	53c	471.7$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.7	60	65%39 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under	50c	462$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2128…4c6dbacked Under	51c	313.95$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.84	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-26%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	46c	274.53$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.03	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	51c	250$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.5	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	54c	250$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3973…2b2abacked Under	51c	231.37$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.37	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	53c	199.44$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.2	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	49c	183.67$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78e9…d49cbacked Over	49c	168.71$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.93	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Under	50c	138.6$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.3	383	47%180 W · 203 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c78…1af0backed Over	51c	137.25$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	55cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Under	77c	125$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.75	166	69.9%116 W · 50 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	354	44.6%158 W · 196 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c90…272cbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474b…c5b1backed Under	50c	89.16$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.58	90	50%45 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed Under	55c	67.55$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over	44c	59.83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.43	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Under	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	111	58.6%65 W · 46 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa46d…59c4backed Over	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	121	49.6%60 W · 61 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	202	41.1%83 W · 119 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0e…7e25backed Over	49c	24.1$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74b…ac2fbacked Over	48c	22.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Under	51c	22.16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.86	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 235.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event