NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x236fd1dc5d9af8e401505843648d0ad5a86252b873070dd27e0ff092f7b5e643

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $133,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $133,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,063 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Under	53c	102,972$54,264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48,708.41	262	53.8%141 W · 121 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	37,361$18,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,044.3	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	47c	20,130$9,562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,561.6	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Under	49c	15,558$7,623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,934.55	115	35.7%41 W · 74 L	-12.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Over	47c	15,000$7,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,050	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over	47c	10,000$4,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,700	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	47c	7,921$3,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,719.86	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over	51c	6,677$3,405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,405.05	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	47c	6,504$3,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,056.88	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b83…23f1backed Over	52c	5,385$2,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,800	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Over	47c	5,000$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,350	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	48c	2,515$1,207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,206.58	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	51c	1,064$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.62	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	48c	1,010$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.8	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Over	46c	1,000$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	4c	617.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.39	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Under	55c	454.05$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.05	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	49c	428$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.48	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over	48c	312.5$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	155	43.2%67 W · 88 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed Under	53c	221.42$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.07	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over	48c	195$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20c2…895fbacked Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-3.5wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over	48c	106.25$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad2…71f8backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	628	48.7%306 W · 322 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Under	54c	99.91$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.03	217	53%115 W · 102 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	55c	72$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.4	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over	48c	50.5$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.24	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	49c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4662…807ebacked Under	54c	49.57$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.89	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48a9…0d53backed Under	50c	48$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Over	47c	47.96$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.54	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0efe…df51backed Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Under	50c	41$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	48c	39$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Under	49c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.83	95	60%57 W · 38 L	+10.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98ae…2bfebacked Over	51c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6e…e417backed Over	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event