TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,348 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5cae…a00abacked Under53c13,893$7,330 inWon+$6,562.624465.9%29 W · 15 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c8,179$3,847 inLost-$3,846.699,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over45c2,720$1,224 inLost-$1,22458347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over43c2,104$914 inLost-$913.888,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over49c601$292 inLost-$292.411,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over47c583$276 inLost-$275.841,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over4c416.03$17 inLost-$16.867921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Under58c344.83$200 inWon+$144.8311155%61 W · 50 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under80c309.65$246 inWon+$63.281,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over20c300$60 inLost-$603,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Over6c300$18 inLost-$189235.9%33 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over47c212.77$100 inLost-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over42c203.47$85 inLost-$85.4452643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Under54c185.19$100 inWon+$85.1918558.4%108 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Under58c129.31$75 inWon+$54.311533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-41.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under51c100$51 inWon+$492,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over45c100$45 inLost-$4535739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Under56c88.82$50 inWon+$39.0829458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over47c80$38 inLost-$37.62,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25e7…51d6backed Over44c66.09$29 inLost-$29.087145.1%32 W · 39 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under61c50$31 inWon+$19.561253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd164…f17bbacked Under59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.95156.9%29 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Over50c31.18$16 inLost-$15.5921749.3%107 W · 110 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over39c30$12 inLost-$11.71,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11ff…39a4backed Under57c20$11 inWon+$8.61040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.