NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e4d7745f01fb8b5aae2ba12f6bb4f165411d606d344447864f4ce422b549062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Under | 49c | 46,101$22,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,511.33 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 11,669$5,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,749.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…a1d0backed Over | 51c | 9,801$4,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 50c | 8,953$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,452.63 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…8eeabacked Over | 51c | 8,775$4,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,475.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…f514backed Over | 51c | 8,490$4,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,330 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 52c | 5,434$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 51c | 5,234$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.86 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…f58ebacked Over | 52c | 5,068$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…8b49backed Over | 51c | 3,931$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 2,877$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Under | 51c | 2,322$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.95 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 2,278$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.66 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 50c | 1,408$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 45c | 1,103$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.35 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.42 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 998$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Over | 45c | 824$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.8 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 50c | 493.98$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.99 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 458.34$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.61 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…20eabacked Under | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 45c | 376.35$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.36 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Over | 45c | 319.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 49c | 275.51$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 32c | 234.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 49c | 225$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1067…9bd3backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…98e5backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…8c36backed Under | 57c | 175.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 49c | 171.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 43c | 145.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Over | 51c | 144.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 123.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 45c | 111.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Under | 52c | 106.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…0af7backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…7e26backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 55c | 96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 54c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 55c | 86.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 45c | 66.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 55.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…a633backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 52c | 38.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…d3eebacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 49c | 33.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 28.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…6202backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…404cbacked Over | 50c | 23.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…70ddbacked Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Over | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 237.5this page
- Raptors vs. HeatRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Raptors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Heat: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.