TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Heat: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,958 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c8,878$4,110 inLost-$4,110.189,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b3c…ea0abacked Under53c7,558$4,006 inWon+$3,552.28520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-62.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under55c2,541$1,398 inWon+$1,143.451,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51e1…c98abacked Over48c1,919$921 inLost-$9216653%35 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Under54c1,838$993 inWon+$845.4849938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Over43c750$323 inLost-$322.510244.1%45 W · 57 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over48c627$301 inLost-$300.962,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over49c550$270 inLost-$269.550047.2%236 W · 264 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over25c300$75 inLost-$753,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under75c300$225 inWon+$751,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa83…74f4backed Under54c201.85$109 inWon+$92.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Under54c200$108 inWon+$9211351.3%58 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Under54c120$65 inWon+$55.212952.7%68 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Under54c115.8$63 inWon+$53.274235.7%15 W · 27 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over45c100$45 inLost-$454,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over48c100$48 inLost-$4838845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6611…17e7backed Under54c100$54 inWon+$469048.9%44 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Under53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.3432750.2%164 W · 163 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Under54c60$32 inWon+$27.65646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over48c52.1$25 inLost-$25.011,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf45…1f5fbacked Under53c45.28$24 inWon+$21.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcba…d962backed Under54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.048543.5%37 W · 48 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under57c34.56$20 inWon+$14.866,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Under72c23.57$17 inWon+$6.616669.9%116 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Under80c22.04$18 inWon+$4.4116447.6%78 W · 86 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ec…c4e5backed Under55c19$10 inWon+$8.552860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.