NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1acfbdcc52309bcdeaeeb2cb7cab9535ac8c96f07bad565a4826708219358694

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Raptorsof Heat, Raptors
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $118,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,051 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9c16…09cbbacked Raptors	48c	67,892$32,859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35,033	132	48.5%64 W · 68 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Heat	51c	67,184$34,353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34,353.15	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors	50c	15,399$7,704 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,694.9	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd6…3d4dbacked Heat	52c	9,615$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…356dbacked Heat	52c	9,615$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	51c	6,872$3,504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,503.56	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Raptors	49c	5,000$2,459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,540.99	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors	49c	4,327$2,138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,189.38	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raptors	50c	4,122$2,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,073.62	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Raptors	51c	4,000$2,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,960	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Raptors	48c	3,813$1,830 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,982.5	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	51c	3,140$1,599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat	50c	2,902$1,446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,445.93	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat	52c	2,338$1,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,214.37	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Raptors	49c	1,647$807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$840.15	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Heat	48c	1,050$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	51c	1,000$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.68	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2286…3ccfbacked Raptors	41c	600$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+29%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat	49c	508.87$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.39	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Raptors	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	569	45.3%258 W · 311 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Raptors	49c	428.57$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.57	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc675…2ff3backed Heat	49c	400$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-4.8wins	-0.15per pick	56cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Heat	52c	311.54$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	150	38%57 W · 93 L	-5.6wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat	49c	306.12$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat	51c	283.16$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.41	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Heat	52c	252.54$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.32	229	53.7%123 W · 106 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Heat	52c	245.04$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.1	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Raptors	49c	226.53$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.53	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed Raptors	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21b4…e064backed Raptors	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Raptors	40c	199.99$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	426	40.4%172 W · 254 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Heat	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Raptors	48c	190$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.69	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Heat	48c	158.65$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.68	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Raptors	49c	153.06$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.06	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Raptors	49c	150.14$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.57	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Heat	52c	134.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Heat	46c	122.35$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.28	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Heat	50c	122$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	503	46.5%234 W · 269 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cc…da60backed Heat	52c	105$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Raptors	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Raptors	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Heat	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	133	55.6%74 W · 59 L	+8.7wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Heat	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Raptors	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Heat	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	354	44.6%158 W · 196 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Raptors	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	288	56.9%164 W · 124 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4c90…272cbacked Heat	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a0…67cabacked Raptors	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Raptors	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…a87abacked Raptors	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat	46c	92.59$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.59	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Raptors	49c	91.67$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.39	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Raptors	49c	81.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.63	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Heat	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f17…2332backed Heat	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	121	55.4%67 W · 54 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Raptors	53c	72$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.84	83	55.4%46 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat	51c	71.3$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.17	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e79…089bbacked Heat	54c	66.17$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.73	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Raptors	51c	63.73$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.23	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x042e…f947backed Raptors	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Heat	37c	48.37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	141	27.7%39 W · 102 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Raptors	54c	48.15$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.15	311	51.1%159 W · 152 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Heat	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Heat	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Raptors	54c	45.13$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.76	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dd…ea96backed Heat	54c	44.07$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ea…21e1backed Raptors	49c	42.31$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.58	119	30.3%36 W · 83 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Raptors	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors	60c	39.17$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.52	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Heat	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	273	59%161 W · 112 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Heat	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	290	46.9%136 W · 154 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc5…7ac4backed Heat	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Heat	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	195	48.7%95 W · 100 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4049backed Raptors	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	242	53.3%129 W · 113 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat	49c	36.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Raptors	51c	36.73$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-4.5wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d66…0e16backed Raptors	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	156	48.7%76 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1af…c803backed Raptors	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Heat	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	149	53%79 W · 70 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Raptors	49c	26.65$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.65	291	56.4%164 W · 127 L	+13.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Heat	53c	26.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bef…b7c2backed Heat	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cdb…7a7abacked Heat	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raptors	50c	21.75$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.87	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee35…11ecbacked Heat	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd0…4938backed Raptors	53c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.93	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event