TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Virtus.pro (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$329,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$369,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Team Yandex63c24,260$15,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,862.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Virtus.pro29c22,135$6,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,35553451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Virtus.pro15c14,794$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.071338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Virtus.pro17c13,494$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.1416842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Team Yandex67c13,291$8,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,328.098258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Virtus.pro33c7,583$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50014840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Team Yandex67c6,570$4,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.9711346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Virtus.pro32c6,160$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.9319943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex75c5,994$4,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.352,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Yandex70c5,897$4,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.4133850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8664…9981backed Virtus.pro32c5,639$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.491747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8702…6304backed Virtus.pro32c5,296$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.71330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Virtus.pro32c5,100$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64318452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro15c4,973$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.421,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Team Yandex69c4,817$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.662650%13 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Yandex67c4,761$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.0113155%72 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Virtus.pro34c4,386$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50011557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Team Yandex75c4,298$3,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.2614947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Virtus.pro31c4,088$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.0239660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Virtus.pro36c3,981$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.083650%18 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Virtus.pro15c3,927$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.819047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9de…5fb1backed Virtus.pro2c3,544$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.47147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23d…f322backed Virtus.pro37c3,328$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2315459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Yandex68c3,323$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.4127645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Virtus.pro32c3,148$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Virtus.pro34c3,065$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.26757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Virtus.pro31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93020159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Team Yandex67c2,863$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.858447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed Virtus.pro9c2,863$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.5412256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Yandex78c2,763$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.6385851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Team Yandex67c2,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.992867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Virtus.pro19c2,398$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.244445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Virtus.pro23c2,174$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Yandex73c2,150$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.7534146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Virtus.pro30c2,110$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.9421350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Team Yandex75c2,007$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.3112459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Virtus.pro31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62011839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Virtus.pro29c1,941$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.739936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Virtus.pro37c1,900$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70314538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Virtus.pro34c1,888$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.3662650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe2b…c345backed Virtus.pro30c1,800$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9960%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Virtus.pro37c1,625$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.3828341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Virtus.pro19c1,556$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.2414537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Team Yandex65c1,523$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.5112351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Virtus.pro19c1,500$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2559250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Team Yandex67c1,500$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49517146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Virtus.pro10c1,482$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Virtus.pro24c1,422$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34256848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Virtus.pro37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Virtus.pro11c1,340$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5845951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04e6…0ec3backed Team Yandex79c1,328$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b0…60e7backed Virtus.pro33c1,295$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Team Yandex64c1,272$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.21369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+57.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Virtus.pro31c1,240$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.2610941.3%45 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Team Yandex77c1,200$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27612868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Virtus.pro26c1,171$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Team Yandex63c1,166$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.0416050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed Virtus.pro37c1,100$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.567549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Virtus.pro10c1,088$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8534468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Virtus.pro33c1,076$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35529160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed Team Yandex72c1,043$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.283666.7%24 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19c9…ffbebacked Virtus.pro35c1,025$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f32…4253backed Team Yandex65c1,025$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed Virtus.pro7c1,002$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1617633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc8…fa26backed Team Yandex69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Virtus.pro5c1,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210745.8%49 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed Team Yandex67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7116…b487backed Virtus.pro15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503050%15 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cf2…423abacked Virtus.pro37c945.95$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Virtus.pro37c929.73$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34419743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Virtus.pro32c905.45$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.4246535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Virtus.pro34c875.46$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.566131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1391…6b3fbacked Virtus.pro17c853.37$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.094231%13 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked Virtus.pro19c817.68$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.91050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Virtus.pro22c813.59$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.366243.5%27 W · 35 L-8.0wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Virtus.pro35c809.74$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.946854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Virtus.pro31c802.11$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6511947.1%56 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x648c…92e8backed Team Yandex69c800$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-75.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Yandex67c799.68$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.897357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Virtus.pro3c789.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.686142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Team Yandex65c786.11$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.115761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virtus.pro32c763.46$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.0660542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9011…311cbacked Virtus.pro35c742.86$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…e22fbacked Team Yandex65c730.77$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67d…9a7dbacked Team Yandex65c730.77$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadbb…b5c0backed Virtus.pro35c718.69$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Yandex70c711.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.0513262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4f…5459backed Virtus.pro20c703.84$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14011051.8%57 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Virtus.pro33c702.24$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2307341.1%30 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Virtus.pro37c699.98$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.7989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Virtus.pro15c686.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071e…0d11backed Virtus.pro36c654.85$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…c415backed Team Yandex71c648.25$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.291241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e2abbacked Virtus.pro15c647.9$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.191844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…252bbacked Virtus.pro15c624.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.753240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Virtus.pro32c616.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Team Yandex64c616.64$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.2411855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Virtus.pro17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Virtus.pro35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21035758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Team Yandex69c599.98$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.998046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.