TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,729 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons37c12,068$4,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,512.7933850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Team Spirit66c8,571$5,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,921.932751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Team Spirit42c7,351$3,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,232.6314840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Team Spirit42c6,500$2,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,754.891478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+41.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed Team Falcons58c5,633$3,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.313633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Team Falcons61c5,400$3,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,29411346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Team Falcons58c4,313$2,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.518253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Team Falcons59c4,237$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Team Falcons59c3,940$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,341.9118452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8664…9981backed Team Spirit42c3,788$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.21747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6c…30c5backed Team Spirit70c3,120$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.573066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d7c…981cbacked Team Falcons58c3,100$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c02…7fdcbacked Team Spirit66c2,960$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.051266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Spirit64c2,921$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.6822848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Team Falcons57c2,716$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.192133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Team Spirit41c2,400$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.9912351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Spirit60c2,190$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.4330138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Spirit42c2,102$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.7320159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Team Spirit39c2,079$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.199145.1%41 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4e9ebacked Team Spirit43c2,008$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.781741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit63c2,000$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75085851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…edaabacked Team Falcons1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20200%0 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked Team Falcons43c1,682$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.554542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cd8…d162backed Team Falcons56c1,650$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Spirit61c1,636$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.7134146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Team Spirit39c1,546$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.86666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Team Spirit78c1,500$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.9511145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Spirit40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9939936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Team Spirit51c1,400$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68614538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06eb…1a5fbacked Team Falcons58c1,316$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.162755.6%15 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Spirit43c1,297$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.177357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Team Falcons57c1,242$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.754940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Team Spirit65c1,168$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5725444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked Team Falcons59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59010941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Falcons57c999.99$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9911839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Team Spirit60c975.56$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.846142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Team Falcons57c934.93$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.588046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team Falcons59c900$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52818649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons31c877.47$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.9789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Team Falcons56c866$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.9611855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c95…8edebacked Team Spirit44c850$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e91…fa98backed Team Spirit44c800$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Team Falcons33c800$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2648648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Spirit37c775.43$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.5210048%48 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Team Spirit41c682.91$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.113847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb10…8062backed Team Falcons49c624.81$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.161735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Team Falcons33c609.85$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7714446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Team Spirit39c599.86$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.849133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…d1abbacked Team Spirit65c583.97$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.23887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick70cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Team Falcons32c580.36$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.2114947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Spirit40c549.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33046535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Team Falcons49c524.82$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.723925.6%10 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Falcons58c514.48$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.457355.5%318 W · 255 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Team Falcons35c501.49$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.492528%7 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-46.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a4e…3309backed Team Spirit60c501.07$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.07850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Team Spirit39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3057047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Falcons57c490.45$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.456955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Team Spirit48c482.16$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.335935.6%21 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b25…b5ccbacked Team Falcons59c482.04$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.38714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-74.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Team Falcons33c481.7$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.3214537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Team Spirit43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.127341.1%30 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Team Spirit65c456.72$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0620361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Team Spirit44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5515653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46fe…a43dbacked Team Falcons59c426.07$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons59c423.73$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25058152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Team Falcons35c422.98$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.045137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…5246backed Team Spirit44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Team Falcons57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22814251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Team Spirit42c400$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2323228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Team Falcons47c379$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.6216835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Team Falcons46c357.26$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16641248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f2…3263backed Team Falcons57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006175.4%46 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x871c…7f0abacked Team Falcons58c346.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006068.3%41 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e31…a728backed Team Spirit58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.833100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+73.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9801…1ab6backed Team Falcons58c328.48$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.774436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Team Falcons53c323$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.652441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Team Falcons62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons31c301.95$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5186949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Team Spirit43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1718037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadd9…6333backed Team Falcons57c299.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Team Falcons61c298.67$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.191764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit55c298.31$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.422,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit58c281.28$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.211,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5571…4015backed Team Falcons36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked Team Spirit42c256.55$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.82763%17 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed Team Spirit43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.58622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8e…349fbacked Team Falcons63c249.74$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.22556%14 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Team Falcons58c248.1$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.91838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Team Falcons35c242.86$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849423.4%22 W · 72 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Team Falcons45c241.58$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.725149%25 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2806…6de8backed Team Spirit43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5610945%49 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Team Spirit43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.566131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons57c219.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.480742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Team Spirit43c216.84$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.613346.6%62 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Falcons60c216.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked Team Spirit44c215.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca6…26aebacked Team Falcons57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Team Spirit67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661225%3 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-46.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5839…bad8backed Team Falcons58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Team Falcons60c200$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.