Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f927ca95ef5ce26b8afdef270d16aa8d31d1fdb8868e7a1094d1555e707bfea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Spirit | 47c | 3,263$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.74 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…dbd1backed Team Falcons | 55c | 3,032$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Team Falcons | 54c | 2,624$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.4 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Team Falcons | 59c | 2,474$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.35 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 47c | 2,212$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.02 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Team Falcons | 54c | 2,171$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.61 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Falcons | 55c | 2,002$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.27 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…edaabacked Team Falcons | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 45c | 1,967$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Team Spirit | 71c | 1,584$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.2 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Spirit | 78c | 1,500$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Team Falcons | 33c | 1,441$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.06 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Team Spirit | 43c | 1,074$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.04 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Team Falcons | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit | 41c | 861.86$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…9a81backed Team Falcons | 17c | 841.38$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Falcons | 55c | 439.31$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.62 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Team Falcons | 33c | 418.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Team Falcons | 63c | 417.46$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Falcons | 26c | 391.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Team Falcons | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Spirit | 44c | 290$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…e02abacked Team Falcons | 57c | 238.6$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Team Spirit | 55c | 233.4$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Team Spirit | 52c | 232.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…a724backed Team Spirit | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Team Falcons | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Team Spirit | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Falcons | 18c | 127.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Spirit | 39c | 117.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Team Spirit | 47c | 106.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Team Falcons | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Falcons | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Team Falcons | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Team Falcons | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Team Falcons | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc016…8c74backed Team Falcons | 17c | 84.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Falcons | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…d255backed Team Falcons | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Team Spirit | 49c | 64.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefa…c212backed Team Falcons | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Team Spirit | 45c | 49.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Team Falcons | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed Team Falcons | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…0a93backed Team Falcons | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Team Falcons | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…8aa8backed Team Falcons | 59c | 32.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Team Spirit | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Team Falcons | 54c | 25.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Falcons | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…da3ebacked Team Falcons | 61c | 22.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Team Falcons | 58c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Team Spirit | 54c | 18.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…5b72backed Team Falcons | 61c | 17.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3)Team Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.