TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,794 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons48c10,404$4,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,951.2533850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ac…86d0backed Team Falcons49c5,155$2,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,537.293357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Spirit62c5,012$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.4648954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Team Falcons62c4,839$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit50c3,777$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.051,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed Team Falcons33c3,497$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.723633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons62c2,921$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.6180443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Spirit36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28020159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…edaabacked Team Falcons1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20200%0 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Team Falcons63c1,718$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.517750.6%39 W · 38 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Spirit41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88539936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Falcons44c1,450$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63813045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit37c1,411$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Team Spirit72c1,397$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.2212459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Team Falcons39c1,296$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Team Spirit69c1,228$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.851957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team Spirit39c1,200$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72718649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Team Falcons37c1,081$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40056848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Team Spirit68c1,080$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.568627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…9a81backed Team Falcons5c1,067$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Team Falcons2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d83…b76bbacked Team Falcons2c900$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed Team Spirit71c874.3$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.39645.8%44 W · 52 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Team Falcons2c800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons44c764.25$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.4689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons27c753.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Spirit45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6713262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Team Spirit45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.678349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f53…adc6backed Team Spirit71c603.68$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Team Spirit42c600$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34849133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Spirit70c590.16$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4134468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons54c569.05$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.1739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…46ddbacked Team Spirit41c512.2$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.28239%32 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Falcons28c477.87$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2334146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Team Spirit42c471.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.3119743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Spirit51c392.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.260646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit45c350.41$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.642,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Spirit64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.535370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Falcons24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7265625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed Team Falcons64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19212256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Team Falcons57c300$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17212862.5%80 W · 48 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Team Spirit76c264.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.613850%69 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Team Spirit40c263.17$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.954445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e6…d3eebacked Team Spirit80c259.54$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Team Falcons20c255$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022453.1%119 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Team Spirit70c249.08$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.721963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Team Falcons54c248.91$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9314446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0e…c6a8backed Team Spirit46c235.71$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.716139.3%24 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211b…78aebacked Team Falcons60c218.33$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Team Spirit63c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.582050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c90…272cbacked Team Falcons26c200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.511546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74cd…71e1backed Team Spirit75c191.43$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.861127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-57.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Team Spirit59c173.59$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5520361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Spirit61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9331545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Team Spirit52c163.07$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.077936.7%29 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Spirit80c158.21$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6445061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Team Falcons37c150.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.572528%7 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-46.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x086f…8bc3backed Team Falcons40c135.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.614710.6%5 W · 42 L-12.0wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-70.7%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Spirit80c131.8$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3646872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76d4…3ad4backed Team Spirit65c120$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.68149.4%40 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Team Spirit43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.288330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Team Falcons66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666155.7%34 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5165…252bbacked Team Falcons22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.283240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Team Spirit53c89.23$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.114947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3a…d5b0backed Team Spirit77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.941963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons54c60.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4592…bab3backed Team Spirit39c59.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.591656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed Team Spirit73c58.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc016…8c74backed Team Spirit46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.352035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Falcons40c52.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8939351.1%201 W · 192 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf8b…51f7backed Team Spirit40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303525.7%9 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xde06…0db1backed Team Spirit77c40.19$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked Team Falcons54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.623640.7%96 W · 140 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Falcons39c38.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed Team Spirit60c36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.256053.3%32 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…f3a0backed Team Spirit57c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157554.7%41 W · 34 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked Team Falcons58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e0…330bbacked Team Spirit45c33.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Team Falcons54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4468…ad0abacked Team Spirit56c25.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e1…802abacked Team Falcons40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3050…da3ebacked Team Falcons60c22.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.782343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit66c22.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6353652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c1…f0d2backed Team Spirit70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae2…47fdbacked Team Falcons53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62250%11 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b7c…4394backed Team Spirit77c13.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.