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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Warriors, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,773
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,773 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3d6…34e3backed Trail Blazers44c3,186$1,402 inWon+$1,784.2720542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors56c2,145$1,201 inLost-$1,201.22,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers44c1,934$850 inWon+$1,083.299,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a5…8507backed Warriors56c1,776$994 inLost-$994.321553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors60c1,470$880 inLost-$879.668,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd64…c090backed Warriors56c1,248$699 inLost-$6993863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Warriors1c1,000$10 inLost-$1067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers46c679.15$310 inWon+$368.786,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Trail Blazers41c508.47$208 inWon+$3001,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Warriors59c508.47$300 inLost-$30011155%61 W · 50 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers44c499.99$220 inWon+$279.992,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…209ebacked Warriors56c446.43$250 inLost-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb95…afe8backed Warriors56c357.14$200 inLost-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Warriors55c145.08$80 inLost-$79.792,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Warriors62c132.55$82 inLost-$82.1852643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8e…1ef0backed Trail Blazers57c114.64$66 inWon+$49.059954.5%54 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Warriors47c112.5$53 inLost-$52.540346.2%186 W · 217 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623c…dde0backed Warriors56c100$56 inLost-$567149.3%35 W · 36 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Trail Blazers44c95$42 inWon+$53.22,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x905d…ada9backed Trail Blazers54c93.21$50 inWon+$43.211136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked Warriors56c89.29$50 inLost-$5031055.5%172 W · 138 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors46c82.08$38 inLost-$37.763,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed Warriors56c69.54$39 inLost-$38.9414445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Trail Blazers48c62.5$30 inWon+$32.548740.7%198 W · 289 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Warriors57c52.63$30 inLost-$301,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Warriors57c52.63$30 inLost-$3016253.1%86 W · 76 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22eb…7d8dbacked Warriors30c50$15 inLost-$153033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed Warriors55c42.02$23 inLost-$22.946434.4%22 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers46c39.47$18 inWon+$21.344,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2723…d384backed Warriors76c39.26$30 inLost-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Warriors55c36.36$20 inLost-$2018347.5%87 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors57c35.09$20 inLost-$2061056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers44c30.71$14 inWon+$17.21,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Warriors53c28.3$15 inLost-$1513652.2%71 W · 65 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ad…cc15backed Trail Blazers38c26.32$10 inWon+$16.322330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-39.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Warriors57c24.56$14 inLost-$1459948.4%290 W · 309 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.