NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcab0a49e2804bfc48d462bb7f3130473162bfeb4af7cdc8f61c7053d62c10b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Trail Blazers | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Trail Blazers | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Trail Blazers | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc38…f41ebacked Warriors | 41c | 217.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed Warriors | 50c | 208.02$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 33c | 202.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Trail Blazers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Warriors | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Warriors vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.