NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x404462d285fdef162502a4c5b0e25d65aa4d2e16bca2b4e8f13a7f8d7f6e3484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 51c | 4,082$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.35 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 3,793$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 51c | 1,759$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.95 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 49c | 1,711$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.39 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 19c | 699.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 51c | 434.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.15 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Over | 53c | 380.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.94 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Under | 50c | 316.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 217.48$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 44c | 199.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 56c | 177.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Over | 52c | 155$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 152$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 51c | 149.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 143$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 49c | 135.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Under | 50c | 103$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 72.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…272cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Under | 45c | 27.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…d231backed Under | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Warriors vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.