NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5da72a02c9b09c27413613d40b0d0a2e8eb7d209fdf0570d5599472a6486d63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Warriors, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 48c | 12,932$6,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,204.3 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,319.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.08 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Warriors | 1c | 1,202$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Trail Blazers | 57c | 912.91$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.91 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 43c | 774.38$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.98 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 47c | 432.38$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 266.67$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 146.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Warriors | 48c | 145.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 48c | 138.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Trail Blazers | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 25c | 133.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…39dabacked Warriors | 49c | 128.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…567cbacked Warriors | 49c | 114.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 108$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…73e7backed Warriors | 48c | 104.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Warriors | 48c | 86.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Warriors | 43c | 57.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…4f97backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x780a…9a44backed Warriors | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Warriors | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Warriors | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 47c | 37.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Warriors | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Warriors | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Warriors | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Warriors | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Warriors | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Warriors | 46c | 25.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…f936backed Warriors | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Warriors vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.