Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 16 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e0bacb0d98e7bb8aa0f8c36f71e2190b760717473adc8674507cd01be6fd07e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $290,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x591f…5610backed No | 0c | 19,866$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 1c | 16,600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…3820backed No | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…73c3backed No | 1c | 12,422$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…1529backed No | 1c | 10,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 6c | 10,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed No | 1c | 10,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…3501backed No | 1c | 9,930$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…951abacked No | 23c | 7,061$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…31fcbacked No | 23c | 5,998$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 5,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,191$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Yes | 58c | 5,067$2,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,121.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 0c | 4,498$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446f…7d4bbacked No | 3c | 4,246$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed No | 4c | 4,230$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked No | 6c | 4,124$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.69 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…79e9backed No | 1c | 4,073$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 70c | 3,643$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.99 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked Yes | 71c | 3,523$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.85 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…1d2bbacked No | 1c | 3,167$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 4c | 3,098$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 1c | 2,477$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 12c | 2,409$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.41 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…4302backed No | 34c | 1,442$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 75c | 1,403$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.41 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…ae51backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…7205backed No | 2c | 950.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 943.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 15c | 937.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…fd66backed No | 28c | 923$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +199.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 39c | 890$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.58 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…79b1backed No | 11c | 885$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…7761backed No | 3c | 641.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 589.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…f9aebacked No | 9c | 562.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…5374backed No | 5c | 528.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 15c | 506.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 10c | 504.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 452.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 4c | 442.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 3c | 430.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe003…f9b5backed No | 12c | 409.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 3c | 390$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5119…e038backed No | 5c | 370.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…2effbacked No | 45c | 331.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed No | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 10c | 254.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed No | 39c | 234$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…1516backed No | 6c | 200.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8c…03abbacked No | 26c | 198.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…447cbacked No | 18c | 164.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…26dbbacked No | 13c | 123.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…0826backed Yes | 78c | 121.81$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…2eeabacked No | 15c | 118.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…7662backed No | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…ed6fbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a2…9981backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5c…56dfbacked No | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked No | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…c15fbacked No | 44c | 63.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…b33cbacked No | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…07d1backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 16 ET?this page
- Will Israel not strike Yemen by September 23 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 17 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 18 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 19 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 20 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 21 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 22 ET?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen on September 23 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.