World Politics · resolved market
Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3397ddb6b66c23f7ebdb73771cf432a9f56221cdcab67de8b87a7848f2dcfc7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $263,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 7c | 23,078$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 16,797$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 0c | 12,107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…5610backed No | 0c | 10,920$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 7c | 9,147$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.95 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 1c | 8,522$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 8c | 7,907$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 8c | 6,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked No | 2c | 5,932$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +1,305.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa246…b652backed No | 3c | 4,737$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 5c | 4,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.15 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 3,925$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 0c | 2,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 4c | 1,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 7c | 1,499$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 6c | 1,400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 8c | 1,357$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 9c | 1,147$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7be7backed No | 8c | 1,030$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 8c | 977$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed No | 16c | 723.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 8c | 722.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 8c | 699.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 650.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked No | 2c | 593.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 20c | 555$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked No | 6c | 545.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 4c | 531.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 33c | 514$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 5c | 499.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked No | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 8c | 253.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 13c | 239$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d9…8548backed No | 9c | 235$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 6c | 179.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 8c | 126.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 9c | 123.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 11c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 67c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 57c | 33.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…b009backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?this page
- Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.