World Politics · resolved market
Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb1bbfd6716e9d6f8413be2f065de94509ce2112193cb8dffd4f2c0c07526c94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 7c | 1,353$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,319$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 5c | 905$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 8c | 867$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 18c | 662.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 7c | 534.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 355.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 333$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…4e0bbacked Yes | 7c | 302$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…95aebacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…9b54backed Yes | 7c | 194.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…b6bebacked Yes | 6c | 186$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 146.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 68c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?this page
- Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.