World Politics · resolved market
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd65c4072e48a82a9cd49e8e6be332792fb13e8e076134d860d110427fc01d374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,555,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,911,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,555,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 576 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e6b…b0fabacked No | 15c | 252,204$38,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,161.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 74c | 207,620$153,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,949.23 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…da00backed No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 30c | 106,651$31,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,860.26 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 80c | 103,768$82,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,144.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…ae12backed No | 23c | 80,000$18,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked No | 1c | 52,576$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.33 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +1,305.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 6c | 34,018$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.7 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked No | 29c | 32,772$9,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,396.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes | 74c | 31,078$23,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,978.8 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 64c | 29,600$19,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,579.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 64c | 25,223$16,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,102.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…f91dbacked No | 14c | 21,520$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 76c | 18,966$14,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,475.18 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 78c | 17,612$13,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,854.26 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…ebdfbacked No | 8c | 17,570$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…1242backed No | 28c | 16,682$4,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,721.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…9e05backed No | 20c | 13,909$2,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,814.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…2493backed Yes | 61c | 11,558$7,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,494.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x474e…8848backed No | 16c | 11,463$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…3048backed No | 14c | 11,454$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 80c | 10,608$8,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 75c | 9,565$7,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.45 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…56febacked No | 31c | 8,224$2,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…cadabacked Yes | 72c | 7,961$5,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 7,690$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.13 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 19c | 7,207$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.63 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…a075backed No | 14c | 6,965$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 75c | 6,873$5,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.6 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked Yes | 76c | 6,499$4,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d6…055abacked No | 22c | 6,365$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 26c | 6,250$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.99 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 10c | 6,164$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.35 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…b24abacked No | 15c | 5,733$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 1c | 5,563$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes | 75c | 5,513$4,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 5,400$4,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.96 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 74c | 5,278$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.07 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 75c | 5,067$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.67 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…7249backed No | 1c | 4,821$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 71c | 4,821$3,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.64 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…2040backed No | 21c | 4,223$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 67c | 4,191$2,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.67 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 20c | 4,170$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.3 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 77c | 4,004$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.1 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 70c | 3,867$2,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.09 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 80c | 3,815$3,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.68 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…fb70backed Yes | 77c | 3,711$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 25c | 3,500$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 76c | 3,239$2,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.65 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…0711backed No | 15c | 3,201$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…00f7backed No | 33c | 3,195$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed No | 19c | 3,117$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…d9bcbacked No | 13c | 3,077$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 78c | 3,050$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.31 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6991…17d9backed No | 15c | 3,038$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,934$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.77 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…c4dcbacked No | 15c | 2,839$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 74c | 2,816$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.99 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…0466backed No | 30c | 2,813$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…767dbacked No | 14c | 2,786$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…8f4dbacked No | 5c | 2,779$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…7be7backed Yes | 77c | 2,750$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…5d91backed No | 16c | 2,675$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…f12ebacked No | 26c | 2,664$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7213…fa31backed No | 14c | 2,507$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…0f78backed No | 1c | 2,374$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…a862backed Yes | 78c | 2,361$1,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 25c | 2,334$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.41 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…47a0backed No | 15c | 2,333$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 76c | 2,330$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.73 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 77c | 2,287$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.32 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…dc0dbacked No | 15c | 2,271$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b00…d78bbacked No | 15c | 2,216$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked No | 21c | 2,203$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.63 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…f5b4backed No | 14c | 2,188$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…12b4backed Yes | 75c | 2,150$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 73c | 2,100$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 23c | 2,100$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.99 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a6…db37backed No | 29c | 2,070$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…f80dbacked No | 23c | 2,031$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…b8e8backed No | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…1f24backed No | 24c | 1,980$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…82a8backed No | 14c | 1,922$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…60a0backed No | 29c | 1,903$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,880$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.49 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…ba24backed No | 17c | 1,877$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…59f0backed No | 23c | 1,865$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 37c | 1,855$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.41 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabda…d0cbbacked Yes | 78c | 1,780$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…d267backed No | 34c | 1,764$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed No | 16c | 1,744$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f38…29cfbacked No | 27c | 1,683$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…98dcbacked Yes | 79c | 1,620$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked No | 29c | 1,615$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…eea5backed No | 15c | 1,609$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?this page
- Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway?No won
- Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?No won
- Will Trygve Slagsvold Vedum become the next Prime Minister of Norway?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.