World Politics · resolved market
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1e13b408a29f7e630ce1e20c31331e7c4a1a60961bee8bd96aae210e97e2b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,151,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,830,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,151,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 8c | 712,035$59,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,662.75 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 10c | 513,232$52,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,978.56 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 10c | 280,000$28,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,993.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 11c | 71,647$7,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,881.15 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…1242backed Yes | 9c | 41,264$3,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,741.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 11c | 38,661$4,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,252.74 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 2c | 36,633$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.73 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +1,305.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 10c | 35,144$3,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,589.06 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…b24abacked Yes | 12c | 26,561$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…9a75backed Yes | 1c | 21,938$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…60a0backed Yes | 15c | 19,000$2,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,806.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked Yes | 4c | 13,972$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…a075backed Yes | 11c | 13,259$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8382…52bdbacked Yes | 5c | 12,883$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 11c | 12,500$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…0b91backed Yes | 12c | 12,059$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 7c | 12,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 10c | 9,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…c63ebacked Yes | 12c | 9,310$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…1b25backed Yes | 7c | 9,272$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 8c | 9,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes | 5c | 8,853$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 10c | 8,815$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed Yes | 13c | 8,630$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 11c | 8,146$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…d267backed Yes | 13c | 7,357$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…9c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 7,174$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 6,970$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.84 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…a49cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…dc0dbacked Yes | 9c | 6,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 13c | 5,800$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed Yes | 10c | 5,680$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…d80cbacked Yes | 20c | 5,653$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…ab54backed Yes | 10c | 5,200$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…b0fabacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…d075backed Yes | 14c | 4,909$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…74cdbacked Yes | 10c | 4,819$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…da68backed Yes | 11c | 3,912$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 17c | 3,894$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.91 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,838$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.71 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…1b74backed Yes | 2c | 3,534$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,488$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…0dbebacked Yes | 14c | 3,262$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 12c | 3,243$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.7 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…5d91backed Yes | 3c | 2,972$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 79c | 2,900$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…10b8backed Yes | 11c | 2,818$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…02f3backed Yes | 6c | 2,540$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…1e81backed Yes | 16c | 2,517$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 80c | 2,498$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f38…29cfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,481$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 3c | 2,474$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 11c | 2,453$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…56febacked Yes | 19c | 2,383$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…3ddbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,296$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bd…215fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,250$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 18c | 2,238$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.54 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…2d99backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…6658backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 15c | 2,059$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.24 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 2c | 2,003$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1007…17a3backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…4e07backed Yes | 10c | 1,955$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac6…8d78backed Yes | 10c | 1,919$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 13c | 1,902$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 14c | 1,870$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…73e9backed Yes | 13c | 1,804$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8b…c07dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,778$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…4a8fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,711$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…4adfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…250fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,664$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293f…117abacked Yes | 14c | 1,659$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…cc66backed Yes | 10c | 1,650$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367c…76e4backed Yes | 17c | 1,642$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 1,606$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.84 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7674…fb94backed Yes | 11c | 1,592$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a90…51b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,586$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,525$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270f…97eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,498$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…bdb6backed Yes | 10c | 1,490$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e1…128dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,448$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…7eaabacked Yes | 9c | 1,444$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57a…3d1abacked Yes | 10c | 1,435$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7da…e1ecbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 1,375$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.61 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd401…0990backed Yes | 10c | 1,373$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954c…6419backed Yes | 11c | 1,372$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?this page
- Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway?No won
- Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?Yes won
- Will Trygve Slagsvold Vedum become the next Prime Minister of Norway?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.