TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$814,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$664,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814,734 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes1c51,337$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.896439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes3c45,467$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.6911247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb23a…9a75backed Yes1c43,265$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+65%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe94…da00backed Yes0c25,300$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d7…a075backed Yes17c20,936$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4813…ae12backed Yes10c19,568$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4c…9b2cbacked Yes4c12,008$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes5c11,707$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.62248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+1,305.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373d…def6backed Yes4c10,975$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43bd…215fbacked Yes9c10,818$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8e…8829backed Yes6c9,107$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes8c8,885$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.665223.1%12 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes4c8,860$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.49616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-64.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c7,757$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.096883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…5332backed Yes6c7,350$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f32…d075backed Yes11c6,548$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes13c6,457$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.745335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc952…da68backed Yes5c6,412$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c73…0bcabacked Yes6c6,409$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ed…ea04backed Yes7c5,600$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f8…1ea5backed Yes1c5,232$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2c…9d74backed Yes23c5,160$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7674…fb94backed Yes6c5,079$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc003…f6aabacked Yes5c5,065$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd783…c752backed Yes6c4,991$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes6c4,967$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b83…a4c1backed Yes11c4,633$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.01425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9660…33b3backed Yes14c4,258$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c4,196$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.281344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes9c4,122$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.74766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb90…c8e9backed Yes5c4,092$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a65…3ddbbacked Yes6c4,088$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8b…481fbacked Yes5c4,032$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bb1…d5e1backed Yes13c3,842$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe24e…350cbacked Yes14c3,614$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a1…47e0backed Yes6c3,507$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes17c3,445$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.458456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf861…f63bbacked Yes6c3,440$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf167…a906backed Yes5c3,378$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf0…1060backed Yes8c2,924$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebee…8fcabacked Yes19c2,918$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f34…2628backed Yes7c2,789$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed Yes7c2,710$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.66650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b1…6288backed Yes11c2,638$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7898…0dbebacked Yes18c2,620$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efd…c159backed Yes5c2,548$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891e…c1c9backed Yes15c2,507$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb368…6658backed Yes6c2,425$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef9…b8e8backed Yes15c2,397$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb30f…9505backed Yes16c2,381$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.91966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d2c…0707backed Yes4c2,368$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x653c…5206backed Yes4c2,367$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c8…bdb6backed Yes5c2,364$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f07…4525backed Yes7c2,246$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd189…134ebacked Yes14c2,213$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc81…7eaabacked Yes6c2,125$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26eb…cc66backed Yes5c2,076$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cd…162fbacked Yes7c2,022$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb233…d78dbacked Yes6c2,021$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a8…d95bbacked Yes5c1,978$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb453…d549backed Yes5c1,932$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9f…56febacked Yes16c1,851$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb61f…41acbacked Yes8c1,851$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…bc16backed Yes5c1,831$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2663…2040backed Yes4c1,813$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…341abacked Yes11c1,810$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes13c1,768$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4610533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1007…17a3backed Yes6c1,758$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c1,750$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2513918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x984a…703abacked Yes6c1,732$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabda…d0cbbacked Yes13c1,662$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa287…5ff2backed Yes8c1,649$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes12c1,636$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c5…a43dbacked Yes5c1,627$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b8…41c9backed Yes6c1,622$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fee…d5ffbacked Yes5c1,611$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf76…0d93backed Yes6c1,564$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes9c1,545$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.241136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f1d…7c3bbacked Yes13c1,510$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x886f…c994backed Yes7c1,466$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9636…21e7backed Yes7c1,463$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes5c1,462$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…250fbacked Yes12c1,450$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes6c1,331$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2615026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes9c1,277$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.930233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb544…e41fbacked Yes6c1,273$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa898…6373backed Yes15c1,260$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,259$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.351,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f30…7698backed Yes8c1,247$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c4…47a0backed Yes6c1,200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaaf…2c6abacked Yes5c1,169$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0df…4adfbacked Yes15c1,166$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked Yes11c1,144$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.181346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36d1…12b4backed Yes13c1,143$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40e9…9c8dbacked Yes18c1,108$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes19c1,100$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21313334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8a…f5eebacked Yes6c1,096$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a75…7d66backed Yes7c1,091$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2090…10b8backed Yes13c1,042$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.