TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Yemen by September 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$205,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc723…535fbacked No2c15,991$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No6c14,416$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.0342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No32c6,860$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.768056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f3…76fbbacked Yes64c6,546$4,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.832634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes49c6,414$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,250.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked No4c5,159$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.158017.5%14 W · 66 L-9.1wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-47.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No4c4,475$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2617931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes68c3,435$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.5934440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes76c3,329$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.3236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed No17c3,113$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.6321926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No13c2,876$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.4539.4%5 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes58c2,790$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.7812245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No35c2,426$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.748552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No28c2,156$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.2513746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50f3…c2c2backed No1c2,156$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.011428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c2,148$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.922078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd145…5f52backed No50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No21c1,904$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.8933337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes69c1,879$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.5447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes72c1,554$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.2242738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes79c1,542$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.583438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No21c1,500$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.791546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x968b…549bbacked No34c1,490$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a03…b226backed No44c1,390$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6161040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No19c1,280$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.814724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked No29c1,273$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.86637.9%25 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7320…79e6backed No8c1,273$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3be…1015backed No8c1,241$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,235$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.121,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes77c1,200$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2762227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a1f…8280backed Yes62c1,101$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db8…5f0abacked No5c1,059$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.97812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes80c1,045$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.957252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No31c1,010$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309360%0 W · 36 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb23a…9a75backed No21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes76c999.99$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24037740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No23c975.78$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.622955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes52c974.98$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.9923525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked No15c968.83$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2156336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No10c898.63$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8614827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No24c826.84$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd4c…dc84backed No5c813.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed No12c799.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e63…e021backed No15c794.56$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No8c786$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.012240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…f9cbbacked Yes77c779.11$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.11580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No17c750$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1256621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa613…c263backed No52c740.38$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3852268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No14c695.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.345328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes69c671.35$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.3529129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No24c605.78$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aab…9d46backed No17c591.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef0…491cbacked No20c555.7$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.731040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b23…9f75backed Yes65c538.19$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Yes63c535.01$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.954955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe241…ba7abacked Yes67c529.99$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.891464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No17c516.66$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed No13c513.75$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.245549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe058…d73ebacked No21c512.5$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No19c510.05$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf7b…c32fbacked No21c502.18$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357f…aee2backed Yes61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1952100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No6c500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.755827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcab…4821backed No19c467.47$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.142934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes52c458.37$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2215332.1%17 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No21c445.16$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1410354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes62c440$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.97025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1be…5409backed No25c408$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed No33c404$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.561833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes74c385.95$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3640828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf379…ca0bbacked No23c379.77$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b85…8e58backed No49c374.83$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.46728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes78c373.09$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.283461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa577…b06abacked No22c352.44$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767561.3%46 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a85…1811backed Yes60c329.99$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.294630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No19c304$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x413f…1747backed No17c301.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No19c301.18$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1827233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bd…4b58backed No14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No17c299.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5117646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac4…c8ccbacked No17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fba…1318backed No52c290.04$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Yes36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.783748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ce2…5f90backed No11c264.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.44355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+75.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No14c259.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9826616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf0b…a210backed No19c254.5$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.661414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No14c251.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2931719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No45c250$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11215743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506540%26 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes74c249.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6410045%45 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb39…e932backed No20c248.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505217.3%9 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes72c248.34$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0817347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed Yes73c239.52$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.752369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9213…1431backed No26c234.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No13c225$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7519428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes80c218.09$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.091421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa9e…70bcbacked No26c216.79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes63c213$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e7…e194backed No24c210.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-72.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes58c208.28$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.