AI · resolved market
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f98e2047f6a218d0f27984c08ccd6f5ae927f0285e79243bc073a820d2da33d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 11c | 37,648$4,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,318.06 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 9c | 16,000$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.63 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked No | 23c | 14,333$3,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,321.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 12,641$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 28c | 8,541$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.43 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…75f2backed Yes | 79c | 6,016$4,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…4333backed Yes | 73c | 4,101$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835a…530abacked Yes | 77c | 3,906$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes | 78c | 3,099$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…6562backed Yes | 69c | 3,047$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 39c | 3,044$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.27 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8f…5c18backed Yes | 37c | 3,043$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.95 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 20c | 2,950$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.98 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 63c | 2,938$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 57c | 2,505$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.27 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…9512backed Yes | 66c | 1,508$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 36c | 1,412$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.59 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,403$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b2…de0ebacked No | 20c | 1,299$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 1,160$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.52 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 19c | 1,152$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 11c | 1,039$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 23c | 999.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 23c | 999.97$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…c8ddbacked Yes | 69c | 867.24$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked No | 26c | 860.98$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 16c | 857.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked Yes | 59c | 837$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No | 6c | 799.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 57c | 773.39$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 45c | 724.1$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.36 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 63c | 715.66$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5a56backed No | 27c | 662.14$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 45c | 660.85$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.35 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 79c | 634.7$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 51c | 631.07$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.74 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…2bd0backed Yes | 73c | 628.28$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 76c | 615.36$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 31c | 600$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 4c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked Yes | 26c | 600$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 74c | 598.57$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.94 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…7976backed Yes | 80c | 563.74$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 76c | 527.03$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…9dcdbacked No | 20c | 523.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed No | 8c | 522.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…d73ebacked No | 19c | 522.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…9fe2backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 60c | 459.87$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.19 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…4d52backed Yes | 70c | 440$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed Yes | 69c | 415$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 27c | 405.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.54 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed Yes | 69c | 402.75$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…e508backed Yes | 76c | 393.91$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…3bcbbacked Yes | 68c | 340.52$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 73c | 333.26$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…a888backed Yes | 70c | 323.87$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 312.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…9e7abacked No | 14c | 286.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…99c4backed Yes | 75c | 281.33$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed No | 10c | 276.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…f635backed Yes | 58c | 274.19$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 23c | 268.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 21c | 259.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 26c | 254.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.86 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed Yes | 39c | 253$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…a53ebacked Yes | 61c | 246.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 65c | 246.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…8944backed Yes | 79c | 230.9$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…90e6backed Yes | 78c | 229.72$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d95…158cbacked No | 45c | 223.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 218.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 63c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +191%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…4f78backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…69f9backed Yes | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 68c | 197$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…0a62backed Yes | 66c | 192.12$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…9e90backed Yes | 30c | 190$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…830ebacked No | 11c | 189.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…b68ebacked Yes | 74c | 189.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…0aa0backed Yes | 69c | 173.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 22c | 161.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…763abacked Yes | 64c | 156.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 34c | 156$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 17c | 149.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 149$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…0e9fbacked Yes | 66c | 145.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…d654backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 39c | 138$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?No won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?No won
- Will Tea Dating Advice be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.