AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc82786fb5ee5599314a49ca06f402256407fa0f4e679ca5d5afb8ad368b18e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 4c | 6,443$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.6 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 1c | 5,281$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4958backed Yes | 21c | 1,299$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8f…5c18backed Yes | 29c | 1,129$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 16c | 870.57$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 717.79$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…7034backed No | 80c | 650$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 12c | 532.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 25c | 500$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 67c | 449.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5a56backed Yes | 22c | 445.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 74c | 418.24$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 350.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 320.71$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.56 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…eba6backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 64c | 244.72$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.21 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 233.02$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 50c | 222.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 48c | 215.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.71 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…36fdbacked No | 68c | 211.84$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 28c | 211.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked Yes | 56c | 200.51$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 72c | 195.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 193.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed Yes | 66c | 185$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 182.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…a746backed Yes | 29c | 170$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 74c | 168.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…4defbacked Yes | 66c | 167.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa3…bb15backed Yes | 35c | 162.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 54c | 160.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked Yes | 76c | 160.38$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 63c | 158.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 46c | 141.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 23c | 120.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…fd11backed Yes | 77c | 117.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…9d68backed Yes | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…68e1backed No | 26c | 111$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dc…8fe8backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…905abacked Yes | 41c | 84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828f…bc0abacked No | 73c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 19c | 68.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…bf3abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…326abacked Yes | 33c | 61.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…4230backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…e2c6backed Yes | 32c | 55.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…732cbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b9…e8f6backed Yes | 32c | 45.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…a298backed Yes | 38c | 41.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…bf7abacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…b68ebacked Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…cbb7backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…7b1abacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…5f0bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…fb50backed Yes | 60c | 24.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 64c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 58c | 22.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf266…3f7dbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?No won
- Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?No won
- Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Yes won
- Will Tea Dating Advice be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.