TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$294,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$286,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x283b…3a9bbacked No0c33,020$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.025113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No1c27,013$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.647330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No3c11,576$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38410426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd579…374ebacked No0c6,430$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No3c6,064$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.23652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c5,651$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.171,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No1c5,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes71c2,085$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.552740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb72…aa19backed No2c2,077$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-81.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea00…ce8dbacked No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd973…4444backed No28c1,418$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b8…a3dfbacked No22c1,378$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f82…3d4ebacked No31c1,271$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No47c1,099$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.646659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No50c1,068$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.18425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-65.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes56c1,054$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.511030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No24c1,041$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe058…d73ebacked No37c942.17$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…6113backed No46c861.15$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f39…d452backed Yes79c835.43$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc09…dbfabacked No14c749$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b2…14f3backed No36c724.81$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.07850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc9…148ebacked No42c713.9$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52c…ef80backed No13c694.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.33333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf01…6865backed No45c668.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78f…135cbacked No34c668.06$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+233.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes59c664.51$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No23c627.65$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.592638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8149…f490backed No30c598.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf81…68bbbacked No17c591.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+900%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes77c587.47$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.242835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f78…f3a0backed No35c565.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fd…95eabacked No27c555.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e20…04e2backed Yes79c507.07$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.071546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No25c499.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.57222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No6c499.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes73c490.67$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.82397.7%3 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-89.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No15c442.07$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.595635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8b7…787bbacked No27c436.4$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x675c…9678backed No21c429.02$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef7…c9f4backed Yes51c422.43$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.554100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+160%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes73c417.8$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.343839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed Yes75c404.99$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.354729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No11c379.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1328828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a84…09a9backed No41c366.96$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes78c329.04$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.28220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f2…63bfbacked No11c320.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes60c299.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.993525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa67…13cfbacked Yes76c295.79$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes73c281.58$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.223050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf184…5b50backed No7c273.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f2…8914backed No24c253.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed Yes72c252.85$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.621376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7655…363abacked No41c245.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked No13c226$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa28b…03f6backed No13c225.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3196…3b21backed No23c214.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No47c212.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.954261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb4e…2aeebacked No17c205.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f1…2287backed Yes79c202$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.423100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed Yes64c192.47$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Yes70c181.88$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1de2…9e23backed Yes53c160$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-41.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb3d…bd14backed Yes66c150.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ee…8d47backed Yes58c150.58$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3673…ce22backed No18c149.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No25c149.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e23…cbc4backed No26c146.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50d8…f015backed Yes63c145.32$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+102.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No18c143.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1721125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes62c141.55$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.288257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…31d3backed No21c140.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b08…24a6backed No22c140$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes78c139.58$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.25940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a96…7f23backed Yes77c130.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.043100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes78c124.12$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9a…aa87backed No21c118.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No16c109$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes62c107.62$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2277.4%2 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-86.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xccac…ab7dbacked No24c106.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No47c101.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.968746%40 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+51.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdaa…0b9cbacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d0…79d1backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e2…253bbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes56c94.22$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.422548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes75c93.33$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.33742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef9f…216bbacked No16c89.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0643…5551backed Yes66c88.38$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e5…f261backed No14c86.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.63966.7%26 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+44.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d15…272bbacked No46c77.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd770…2fd3backed No16c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.