Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe188952841bb51aea86c800dfd0048018dd5d272ef7871b3b9804a5947cbc486
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cbb…374abacked No | 0c | 5,586$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes | 45c | 3,500$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 3,430$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eba…2fcdbacked No | 3c | 1,909$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 1,900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed No | 59c | 1,459$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 53c | 1,213$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.75 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,088$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.27 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 41c | 623.63$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 2c | 555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed No | 56c | 536.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 527.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 56c | 499.55$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.48 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 45c | 319.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 46c | 251$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 44c | 224.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…b40ebacked No | 52c | 192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 54c | 184.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac2…9895backed No | 55c | 183.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 182.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 45c | 182.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked No | 54c | 180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 169.39$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…55b4backed No | 50c | 143.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 54c | 133.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…d73ebacked No | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…a4afbacked No | 56c | 118.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked No | 56c | 109.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 54c | 102.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 55c | 78.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 41c | 75.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 42c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…380fbacked No | 54c | 65.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…837abacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…7313backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365d…79a9backed No | 39c | 42.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…0137backed No | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…270cbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…f365backed No | 60c | 33.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 42c | 30.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d0…371fbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…be07backed Yes | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked Yes | 40c | 27.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 44c | 24.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…d2a5backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…aaf8backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…800dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aee…b884backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cc…65c7backed No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.