TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,978 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No14c1,194$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7234624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes69c899.5$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.633,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed Yes35c634.13$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.584,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes62c549.88$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes51c456.5$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1512329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes68c443.84$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.841233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed No53c430.49$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2281,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb696…02d9backed Yes49c427.3$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.663951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked No62c405.47$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes44c386.37$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.5999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No53c312.27$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.851,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes59c299.45$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.22,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No29c283.02$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5216724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes45c275.22$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.621,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a50…6c35backed No44c249.73$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b98…925ebacked Yes38c249.38$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.0913842.8%59 W · 79 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+164.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cbe…5bcfbacked No48c242.87$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2840%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes41c241.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0953437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes61c238.82$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6810617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbbad…8426backed No46c217.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.953938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28f…841abacked No37c196.75$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.33850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked Yes73c194.92$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6320172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa275…fd87backed No16c193.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a15…aeabbacked No64c190.69$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.62742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33ab…b958backed Yes63c190.48$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3478…211cbacked Yes63c179.29$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.82540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+121.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No35c179.28$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.922,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed Yes40c176.81$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.231,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No52c173.36$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9341460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes73c170.08$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No16c166.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8631219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdf9e…4726backed Yes69c162.32$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes36c160$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.421236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x984b…3c50backed No64c158.38$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-60.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes56c158.36$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.132,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…c680backed No10c146.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.981457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8774…d1f1backed No70c143.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes59c138.53$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.22,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed No37c135.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c133.49$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe06d…ac24backed Yes38c130.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.314032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7861…3084backed Yes64c125.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.915270.4%107 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed Yes40c121.05$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.084,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc721…6887backed No67c120.89$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.56616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed No61c118.73$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.465633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes43c115.91$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No70c108.75$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7625362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No58c100.11$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.79017.8%16 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7127744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7612735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1648…c24bbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd5…4390backed Yes79c99.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed No42c99.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba1…ac85backed No27c99.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2611259.8%67 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes52c97.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6118052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes55c90.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3911438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3742…b912backed No56c87.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.211442.9%6 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3970…d4dcbacked Yes52c84.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.68520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ac2…f949backed No49c81.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0604…19f0backed Yes37c80.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+126%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No25c80.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes42c74.96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked No27c74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9815923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes69c72.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6511737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc9d…f963backed Yes63c70.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.913844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed Yes35c69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.152,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f4…63a4backed Yes67c67.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.28850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed Yes46c64.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.762,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked No48c62.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes49c62.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.561,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes68c59.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.241,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x394a…ba7fbacked No48c59.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.791250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes50c58.84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4418038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes77c58.57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5717831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d35…253cbacked No65c57.94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbeec…707bbacked Yes54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.561866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74cd…886abacked No46c55.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb36…64f4backed No41c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8342…52a2backed Yes64c54.69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x517b…50b7backed No70c54.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.351838.9%7 W · 11 L-4.8wins-0.27per pick65cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No43c52.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed Yes38c52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.246643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3302…489dbacked No34c51.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.62224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-85.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ef…87e4backed No44c51.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ef…84d1backed Yes60c51.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5671…f39bbacked Yes59c51.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb65e…190dbacked No49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258451.2%43 W · 41 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes44c50.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.883,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3054232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a7…396dbacked Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked No61c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.521448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1615…7b3dbacked Yes54c48.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.07425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked No63c47.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes32c47.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.466137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No24c44.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9472222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2d2…abf2backed No46c44.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e5e…ec7bbacked No57c43.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251250%6 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed Yes40c41.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.