Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67ce5ffbf2163090c94546c085cdce9a6ec97538470d1b35568e56d756ed7462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 5,051$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 27c | 947.94$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.9 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 74c | 283$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Yes | 73c | 268.9$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed Yes | 73c | 263$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc721…6887backed No | 30c | 240.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 79c | 197.05$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 27c | 196.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.17 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb5…c494backed No | 32c | 192.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 171.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 11c | 168.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked Yes | 72c | 152$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa275…fd87backed Yes | 12c | 122.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 22c | 113.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 71c | 107.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 28c | 102.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed No | 22c | 92.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 20c | 82.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 20c | 80.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 24c | 80.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked No | 31c | 77.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed No | 50c | 76.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 24c | 74.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed No | 27c | 74.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 76c | 69.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 22c | 65.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 65.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 74c | 64.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 73c | 64.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 63.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 25c | 63.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…ba7fbacked No | 27c | 60.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 25c | 53.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 53.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed Yes | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 74c | 46.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 45.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 24c | 45.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked No | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 72c | 44.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 44.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…4973backed Yes | 33c | 43.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101a…411ebacked No | 26c | 42.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 77c | 42.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed Yes | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 32.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…dcc7backed No | 79c | 30.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked Yes | 74c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked Yes | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ef…87e4backed Yes | 76c | 21.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 76c | 21.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 78c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed Yes | 75c | 16.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044d…ca4fbacked No | 76c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 68c | 15.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 73c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 78c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked No | 79c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.