Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x092e4a53a0a498c796c70659af4e81c58b793329b5ec3c26be7273414752b630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 4,513$3,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,457.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 25c | 2,628$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.23 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Over | 16c | 2,599$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 1,312$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.16 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Over | 51c | 1,209$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 30c | 666.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.66 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 64c | 566.52$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 47c | 502.87$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.16 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 34c | 490.76$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 35c | 463.4$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.9 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 447.72$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.4 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 40c | 406.63$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 46c | 405.34$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.21 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…036ebacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Under | 51c | 388.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 289.13$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.56 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 48c | 244.52$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 8c | 224.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 66c | 204.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 66c | 199.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Under | 67c | 197.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…8e5fbacked Under | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 58c | 168.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 165.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Over | 54c | 155.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…5222backed Under | 43c | 134.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 49c | 118.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 34c | 113.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Over | 31c | 95.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 42c | 94.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 89.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 81.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 78c | 70.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 70.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 38c | 59.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 74c | 55.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Under | 23c | 54.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 68c | 49.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 34c | 41.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 61c | 25.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 80c | 24.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…fe88backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 68c | 19.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 51c | 19.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 70c | 18.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.