Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f58c672a32f1760902b0c7d5832ee9a7a41315d12031d26f7c4d0ead41589d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 49c | 10,198$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200.98 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 5,845$3,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.44 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 43c | 3,500$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 2,887$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.29 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 63c | 2,655$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 2,343$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.62 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 1,978$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 38c | 1,673$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.83 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,073$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.39 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 1,052$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.41 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 3c | 900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc418…5e1ebacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Over | 57c | 729.96$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.41 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 44c | 701.54$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.51 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 676.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 44c | 644.68$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.79 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 56c | 577.07$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 57c | 512.74$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.48 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 66c | 487.84$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 44c | 483.2$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.61 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Under | 48c | 389.74$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Over | 56c | 381.98$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 338.78$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 56c | 305.36$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.95 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 44c | 261.29$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 56c | 260.79$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 207.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0a…6165backed Over | 47c | 205.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…1107backed Over | 56c | 197.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 183.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 55c | 170$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 44c | 131.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 45c | 126.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 75c | 125.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…5222backed Under | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 43c | 95.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 43c | 92.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 78c | 68.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…cddbbacked Under | 44c | 65.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 47c | 57.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 74c | 52.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 68c | 44.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 73c | 44.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Over | 36c | 43.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 56c | 36.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 35.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Under | 43c | 32.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Under | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 78c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 66c | 25.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 44c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Under | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Over | 59c | 18.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.