Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92270a2e1567dc17c1b78807b298ab08c0168be5df6568cc423f788f1743c701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SV Werder Bremenof SV Werder Bremen, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Hamburger SV | 71c | 1,555$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SV Werder Bremen | 28c | 867.82$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.59 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed SV Werder Bremen | 29c | 751.7$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.71 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked SV Werder Bremen | 29c | 542.84$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.42 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Hamburger SV | 72c | 273.18$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.64 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Hamburger SV | 73c | 184.86$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Hamburger SV | 73c | 182$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…3173backed Hamburger SV | 72c | 178.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed SV Werder Bremen | 26c | 109.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Hamburger SV | 74c | 107.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SV Werder Bremen | 27c | 106$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked SV Werder Bremen | 29c | 83.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hamburger SV | 72c | 77.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed SV Werder Bremen | 27c | 60.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Hamburger SV | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…b487backed Hamburger SV | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.