TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb6b9…b487

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT3650%18 W · 18 L-5.0wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.16
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.5
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.5
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$6.1
Spread: Spurs (-17.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+75.5%+$17.2
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.7
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$8.45
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$8.1
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$18.6
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Spread: Thunder (-19.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+54.7%+$17.29
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+69.8%+$14.8
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.95
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3046.7%14 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$12.12
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.88
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$697Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$697
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$150.8
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.43
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.35
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+27%+$34
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+102%+$448.88
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$242.35
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$291.16
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.25
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$121.5
Spread: England (-2.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)backed Sweden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)backed Haiti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)backed Korea Republic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Spread: Canada (-1.5)backed Qatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.9
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$8.1
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.8
Spread: Norway (-2.5)backed Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$76.79
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$70.15
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)backed Hamburger SV · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)backed VfL Wolfsburg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+104.1%+$46.84
All 3 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$18.6
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.7
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.22
Will Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+194.1%+$21.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.