TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Mexico (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Korea Republicof Mexico, Korea Republic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$902,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$930,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $902,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 400 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Mexico21c167,914$34,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,894.692,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Mexico23c75,000$17,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,249.917949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…4244backed Korea Republic73c63,975$46,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,542.617550.3%88 W · 87 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Mexico17c61,248$10,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,264.011,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…367ebacked Mexico23c60,258$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0006943.5%30 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Mexico22c40,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,799.9310056%56 W · 44 L+11.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x190e…b11abacked Korea Republic78c31,204$24,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,864.921266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Korea Republic77c22,570$17,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,191.120844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Korea Republic77c20,132$15,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,592.043,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Mexico22c20,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9812536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Mexico22c19,678$4,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,362.372,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Mexico23c18,702$4,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,253.262,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Korea Republic78c18,696$14,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,028.531,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Mexico9c11,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f4…e55fbacked Korea Republic77c10,070$7,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Korea Republic77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30020044.5%89 W · 111 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x514b…5fa9backed Mexico19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9007538.7%29 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed Mexico8c10,000$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.4915844.3%70 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Korea Republic77c9,126$7,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.2228162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Mexico23c8,888$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.2432029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Korea Republic76c8,869$6,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.92,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe214…c5cebacked Mexico23c8,470$1,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.0322437.1%83 W · 141 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Mexico23c7,707$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.7159230.1%178 W · 414 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ff…32ebbacked Korea Republic74c7,115$5,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,82210550.5%53 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Korea Republic77c6,894$5,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.41,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Mexico23c6,600$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51812825.8%33 W · 95 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Korea Republic77c6,139$4,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.471,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Korea Republic77c6,104$4,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.731,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd864…497ebacked Mexico24c5,636$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Korea Republic80c4,768$3,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.413,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17bf…9f29backed Korea Republic77c4,500$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Mexico23c4,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cb…6f57backed Mexico24c4,200$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.084637%17 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd22…11ffbacked Mexico22c4,191$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.266732.8%22 W · 45 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Korea Republic76c3,628$2,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.931,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Korea Republic76c3,450$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8282661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf182…6225backed Mexico21c3,299$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.665937.3%22 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Mexico22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66047144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Mexico22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66048441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Mexico22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66047643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Mexico22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66050243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mexico23c2,983$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.364,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Mexico28c2,941$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.381,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Korea Republic77c2,940$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.21,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3191…0665backed Mexico22c2,727$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Korea Republic75c2,599$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.351,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Mexico28c2,589$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.631,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Mexico25c2,557$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.041,43840.1%576 W · 862 L-40.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Mexico18c2,557$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.2615932.7%52 W · 107 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Korea Republic78c2,544$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.7911354%61 W · 52 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Mexico17c2,392$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.212,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Mexico27c2,338$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.3277152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mexico19c2,271$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.332,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Mexico23c2,222$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.0614348.3%69 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Mexico24c2,092$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.981,01931.6%322 W · 697 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Korea Republic76c2,072$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.071,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Mexico22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44044144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…dd47backed Korea Republic78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4406129.5%18 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Mexico22c2,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.9919545.6%89 W · 106 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Mexico21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9938526.8%103 W · 282 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Mexico24c1,902$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45012634.9%44 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda2b…85febacked Mexico21c1,890$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006516.9%11 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed Korea Republic77c1,791$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.9132647.9%156 W · 170 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8263…e57ebacked Mexico22c1,681$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.794639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Mexico23c1,641$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.47153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4de…3920backed Mexico22c1,609$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.981952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+45.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Mexico22c1,600$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35247442.8%203 W · 271 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Korea Republic77c1,558$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.4313952.5%73 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Korea Republic76c1,504$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.9726459.5%157 W · 107 L+18.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked Korea Republic74c1,432$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.257865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Mexico21c1,429$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30036349.3%179 W · 184 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Korea Republic77c1,205$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.096648.5%32 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Mexico22c1,201$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.2626940.9%110 W · 159 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Mexico21c1,190$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25022643.4%98 W · 128 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Mexico10c1,153$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6920646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fa9…9a60backed Mexico23c1,130$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Korea Republic77c1,129$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.6352744.4%234 W · 293 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Mexico23c1,087$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee4f…c0f0backed Mexico23c1,087$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed Mexico28c1,069$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.31250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Korea Republic77c1,068$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.822,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4b…0b44backed Mexico23c1,058$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3317432.2%56 W · 118 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Mexico21c1,010$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.136838.6%142 W · 226 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Korea Republic77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.021,06749.1%524 W · 543 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Korea Republic76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.8430950.8%157 W · 152 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Mexico21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21039932.6%130 W · 269 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Korea Republic77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23019345.1%87 W · 106 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae1…378fbacked Korea Republic79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21018929.1%55 W · 134 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Mexico22c999.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22013933.8%47 W · 92 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Mexico14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14085851.2%439 W · 419 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Mexico10c988.83$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6843230.1%130 W · 302 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Mexico24c946.97$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22560821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd35b…4a53backed Mexico22c899.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.347915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed Korea Republic77c891.26$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2817568.6%120 W · 55 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick74cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09b2…1911backed Mexico23c869.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005324.5%13 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb87…eb45backed Mexico12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010729.9%32 W · 75 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2759…62a9backed Mexico24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005839.7%23 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c41…eeb9backed Mexico24c817.75$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.268026.3%21 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Mexico18c805.56$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1457424.3%18 W · 56 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Korea Republic80c785.1$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7474034.1%252 W · 488 L-36.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.