Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbbc48f21937e1024e5fd5c74111253510dacec710973396a2b76aef269ffa9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 12,775$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.78 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 15c | 12,609$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,933.67 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 18c | 3,824$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.23 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 19c | 3,410$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.65 | 1,438 | 40.1%576 W · 862 L | -40.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 19c | 3,041$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.23 | 1,354 | 38.9%527 W · 827 L | -55.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 19c | 2,600$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.45 | 1,563 | 39.8%622 W · 941 L | -51.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…3e89backed Yes | 19c | 2,107$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 112 | 19.6%22 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…c0e6backed Yes | 21c | 1,438$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.06 | 126 | 15.1%19 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,414$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.26 | 1,380 | 40.2%555 W · 825 L | -51.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…e6aebacked No | 79c | 1,405$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,372$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.27 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fca…c922backed Yes | 21c | 1,310$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 125 | 17.6%22 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…4a74backed Yes | 20c | 1,070$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…5816backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd252…775bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,028$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.25 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 354 | 24%85 W · 269 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 16c | 961.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 17c | 673$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 226 | 23.5%53 W · 173 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 13c | 652.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Yes | 17c | 588.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…9e46backed Yes | 19c | 531.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Yes | 19c | 522.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 580 | 29.5%171 W · 409 L | -19.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…5ed8backed Yes | 19c | 515$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…d25cbacked Yes | 22c | 464.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…a873backed Yes | 16c | 431.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…1becbacked Yes | 20c | 382.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 78c | 378.51$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b20…2f94backed Yes | 19c | 366.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 207 | 29%60 W · 147 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed No | 79c | 353.44$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 80c | 348.79$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 80c | 279.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…6edabacked Yes | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea2…f26dbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…e42fbacked Yes | 20c | 243.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…c91fbacked Yes | 21c | 240.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 11c | 203.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 238 | 20.6%49 W · 189 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…943bbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 133 | 31.6%42 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…43b0backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked No | 79c | 165.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 160.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 79c | 148.71$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…c4fcbacked Yes | 19c | 123.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c64…75afbacked Yes | 19c | 119.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…d876backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9e…2028backed Yes | 18c | 116.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 20c | 112.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…058cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…e412backed Yes | 19c | 103.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a4…c659backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7683…4cebbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…66efbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca4…8bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 13c | 99.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Yes | 19c | 94.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb73…4f95backed Yes | 21c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…c63ebacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9e…fe9dbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2740…d946backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Yes | 18c | 58.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…9d9ebacked Yes | 20c | 55.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd54a…f2c3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…e294backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 48.2%145 W · 156 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…fa45backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…96f2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked No | 80c | 39.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 172 | 71.5%123 W · 49 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Halfthis page
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Korea Republic (-3.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Korea Republic won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Korea Republic won
- Spread: Mexico (-3.5)Korea Republic won
- Spread: Mexico (-4.5)Korea Republic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.