TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,349,774
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,334,049

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,349,774 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1c5…cbd0backed Under59c1,714,262$1,004,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709,711.352548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53be…456abacked Under58c1,693,888$975,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718,769.81650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over42c1,342,885$557,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557,730.377152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Over42c442,143$185,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185,700.211642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa407…ca38backed Over43c329,781$141,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,805.83458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc430…1ebfbacked Under56c323,000$180,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,120.138932.6%29 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over42c277,387$116,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,502.6674752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over44c204,653$90,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,697.052,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over43c200,909$86,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,529.651,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under56c120,345$67,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,830.762,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed Over44c114,215$50,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,254.89747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Over43c104,074$45,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,128.7921029%61 W · 149 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Over41c100,000$41,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,0005749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb6…06dabacked Under56c100,000$56,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,999.893759.5%22 W · 15 L+6.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+32.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under67c87,874$58,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,944.224,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Over12c87,328$10,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,479.3622348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c3…600fbacked Over43c85,667$37,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,003.534148.8%20 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Under56c75,000$42,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,999.9317949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under58c70,000$40,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,399.9832031.6%101 W · 219 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Over43c66,666$28,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,666.3811647.4%55 W · 61 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over43c61,091$26,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,269.2564446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Under58c55,948$32,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,498.3214232.4%46 W · 96 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x514b…5fa9backed Over24c55,000$13,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,149.977538.7%29 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Under57c54,336$30,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,471.920844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Over42c52,000$21,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,84021343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Over42c51,600$21,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,585.994134.1%14 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked Under59c50,000$29,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,499.9715249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Over42c41,280$17,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,337.67345.2%33 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over43c41,000$17,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,63042345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…308abacked Under56c39,621$22,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,433.29850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over33c39,050$12,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,913.182,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Over43c31,861$13,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,700.231428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over43c31,721$13,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,518.581,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over43c30,428$12,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,991.191,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Under58c30,000$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,60027039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over42c28,839$12,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,112.536031.7%114 W · 246 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Over43c26,036$11,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,195.563154.8%17 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over29c25,554$7,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,521.991,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked Over42c24,721$10,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,399.0914139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Over42c22,555$9,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,473.11435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Over44c20,111$8,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,816.0916546.1%76 W · 89 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over42c20,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,40059230.1%178 W · 414 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Under56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,8008247.6%39 W · 43 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Under56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,799.9614829.7%44 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over43c18,234$7,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,836.973,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over41c17,500$7,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,17574447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over44c16,243$7,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,146.792,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over44c16,047$7,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,060.4936247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over43c15,000$6,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,45017748%85 W · 92 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Under73c13,057$9,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.5139644.7%177 W · 219 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over40c13,045$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.828,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over43c11,729$5,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,045.1429740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under58c11,111$6,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,666.6219038.9%74 W · 116 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over42c11,000$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,65023949.4%118 W · 121 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab6…05febacked Over24c11,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.916132.8%20 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e6…e1c2backed Under67c10,944$7,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,611.574158.5%24 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked Over4c10,170$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.8751514.2%73 W · 442 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Over42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20012536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea8…9469backed Over36c9,674$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5008353%44 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under58c9,604$5,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,075.961,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over44c9,152$3,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,998.9921849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under73c8,588$6,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.563,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed Over43c8,513$3,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,631.8395037.5%356 W · 594 L-1.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over42c8,367$3,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,553.161,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed Over44c7,476$3,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,289.4420333.5%68 W · 135 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Under58c7,213$4,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.450243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Under66c7,151$4,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.4510146.5%47 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb184…b6c6backed Over44c7,129$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.936728.4%19 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Under58c7,000$4,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,954.9647144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Over11c6,976$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.363423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under56c6,888$3,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.725345.3%24 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b6…9823backed Over43c6,870$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,954.217754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Under58c6,860$3,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.383520%7 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…57e7backed Over44c6,818$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003636.1%13 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7c7…44b7backed Over44c6,818$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0007943%34 W · 45 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Over45c6,667$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc7…3207backed Over43c6,463$2,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,778.920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under58c6,000$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52016258.6%95 W · 67 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over43c5,814$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50012554.4%68 W · 57 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Over43c5,813$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.821,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Over42c5,683$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.8618850%94 W · 94 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21e8…b85ebacked Over44c5,682$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over42c5,367$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.141,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Under58c5,322$3,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,258.6348441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over33c5,186$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.764,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over30c5,068$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.632,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over20c5,001$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.861,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Over42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1007448.6%36 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc229…1b74backed Over29c5,000$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4258858%51 W · 37 L+10.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under62c4,978$3,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.352,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c12…748fbacked Over40c4,839$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.5932422.5%73 W · 251 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over43c4,489$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.214,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed Over44c4,470$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.592227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-45.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Over42c4,416$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.7226454.5%144 W · 120 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa4ff…5dedbacked Over43c4,381$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.962842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Over43c4,360$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.151,13540.2%456 W · 679 L+5.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Over44c4,342$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.981,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over44c4,327$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.882,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed Under57c4,154$2,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786.098247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed Under57c4,090$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.6533548.4%162 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.