TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Beijing Ducksof Shanghai Sharks, Beijing Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,178 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd48a…6e90backed Shanghai Sharks73c24,398$17,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,798.934562.2%28 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Shanghai Sharks70c4,780$3,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,337.943834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Beijing Ducks27c4,241$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.9443543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Beijing Ducks25c4,132$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100.082842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Shanghai Sharks76c3,957$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Beijing Ducks32c2,897$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.841464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Beijing Ducks32c2,693$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.3237052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Beijing Ducks23c2,660$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.6124430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Beijing Ducks45c2,194$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.14450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Shanghai Sharks65c2,037$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.342842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Beijing Ducks31c1,944$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.4535234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Shanghai Sharks70c1,735$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.884344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked Shanghai Sharks58c1,708$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.891656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Beijing Ducks32c1,672$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.191643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed Shanghai Sharks66c1,572$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.271942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c2…c627backed Beijing Ducks41c1,553$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Beijing Ducks33c1,481$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.9736939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Shanghai Sharks76c1,450$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Beijing Ducks25c1,200$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+93.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Beijing Ducks24c1,100$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.991030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Beijing Ducks28c1,014$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.583345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Beijing Ducks26c925.21$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.075844.8%26 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc229…dbeabacked Beijing Ducks34c877.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.821030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Shanghai Sharks74c874.91$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x116f…71b8backed Beijing Ducks27c868.87$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd005…12f2backed Beijing Ducks25c858.76$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+302.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Shanghai Sharks24c763.24$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1846116.4%10 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52de…5999backed Shanghai Sharks78c666.6$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Shanghai Sharks16c608.32$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.363336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Beijing Ducks44c566.95$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.052850%14 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Beijing Ducks25c560$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked Beijing Ducks33c535.77$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.641546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Beijing Ducks27c506.49$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.881637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Shanghai Sharks68c502.85$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.666747.8%32 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Beijing Ducks25c500.09$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.071464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+33.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Beijing Ducks24c500$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3802133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6754…e4fcbacked Beijing Ducks25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Beijing Ducks44c487.48$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.621535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Shanghai Sharks41c450$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1832737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Beijing Ducks36c449.94$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.966346%29 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Shanghai Sharks67c445.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003060%18 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Beijing Ducks26c439.53$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.4521444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Shanghai Sharks73c409.72$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Beijing Ducks27c404.32$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Beijing Ducks26c400$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2964245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Beijing Ducks25c393.08$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+98.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Beijing Ducks23c391.69$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.831464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x659f…c105backed Shanghai Sharks50c384.06$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.991118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…5dbdbacked Shanghai Sharks79c339.69$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Beijing Ducks51c321.47$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.412157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Beijing Ducks25c316.39$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.292544%11 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Beijing Ducks32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a6…dedebacked Shanghai Sharks71c308.44$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-61.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Beijing Ducks65c306.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.691070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Beijing Ducks27c293.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8046…4db2backed Shanghai Sharks77c223.38$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2236…686bbacked Shanghai Sharks78c217.95$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Shanghai Sharks74c217.91$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.253933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shanghai Sharks70c216.1$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.214443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shanghai Sharks54c211.23$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0613545.9%62 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d5…0710backed Shanghai Sharks77c202.86$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16dd…c382backed Beijing Ducks26c202.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…eee6backed Shanghai Sharks64c200.33$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.61757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Beijing Ducks25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503737.8%14 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Shanghai Sharks75c200$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1491338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f0c…160cbacked Shanghai Sharks73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Beijing Ducks25c198.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.078453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3048…057fbacked Shanghai Sharks51c196.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Shanghai Sharks70c182.03$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1285271.2%37 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad31…1c1dbacked Shanghai Sharks76c178.93$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e09…d784backed Shanghai Sharks33c169.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…6e9bbacked Beijing Ducks32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.25887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.48per pick39cpaid+149.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x49c8…3c52backed Beijing Ducks22c154.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.923342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb75c…b6d3backed Shanghai Sharks66c151$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.661471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Beijing Ducks25c150.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.893743.2%16 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f4b…3963backed Beijing Ducks28c150$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd697…6cd3backed Beijing Ducks28c142.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.86742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Shanghai Sharks73c141.34$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7819748.2%95 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed Shanghai Sharks74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Beijing Ducks24c133.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.531844.4%8 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+71%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a5c…cfa8backed Shanghai Sharks36c128.28$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.69450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0846…a401backed Beijing Ducks24c122.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…32a7backed Shanghai Sharks70c118.87$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.33977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabdd…cb3fbacked Beijing Ducks28c106.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.933721.6%8 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x02c7…0927backed Beijing Ducks59c104.75$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.751560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e80…c709backed Shanghai Sharks26c100.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.87520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-66.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f42…0524backed Beijing Ducks30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Beijing Ducks28c99.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7227338.1%104 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed Shanghai Sharks74c99.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.993357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Shanghai Sharks21c99.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7413220.5%27 W · 105 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Beijing Ducks23c89.34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.794557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Shanghai Sharks59c83.63$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.266744.8%30 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked Beijing Ducks31c80$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce5…a07fbacked Beijing Ducks25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6557…ec12backed Beijing Ducks25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Shanghai Sharks54c78.6$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.83823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x623a…5144backed Beijing Ducks26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+47.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28b3…08e3backed Beijing Ducks27c75.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+156.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Shanghai Sharks74c74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.769946.5%46 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Beijing Ducks77c74$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.026061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.