TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Canada (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadaof Canada, Qatar
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,622,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,274,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,622,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc11…eec6backed Canada56c3,608,735$2,007,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601,634.785100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Qatar44c1,276,105$563,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563,024.4477152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Qatar46c927,368$422,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422,087.248440.5%34 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Qatar44c532,389$234,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234,251.1611642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Qatar44c450,000$198,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198,00074752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed Canada55c400,000$220,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179,999.942774.1%20 W · 7 L+7.8wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+98.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Canada56c357,143$200,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,142.8619644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed Canada52c299,999$156,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143,999.7215552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Qatar45c243,773$110,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,542.81,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Qatar44c230,752$101,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,530.925334%18 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cb…e9fdbacked Canada55c202,653$112,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,194955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Canada52c182,387$94,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,843.0842345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Qatar44c179,200$78,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,848.0515456.5%87 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Qatar45c161,403$72,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,117.644,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Qatar45c155,554$69,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,999.2911647.4%55 W · 61 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81da…a109backed Canada51c152,197$77,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,576.332085%17 W · 3 L+7.9wins+0.40per pick45cpaid+82.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Qatar48c147,677$70,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,884.9617447.1%82 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Canada53c145,000$76,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,15022348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Qatar45c112,130$50,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,836.223,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed Canada53c109,110$57,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,281.79747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Canada54c99,999$54,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,999.73345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Qatar45c96,000$43,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,20014349.7%71 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c7…c83bbacked Qatar44c74,453$32,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,759.446448.4%31 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Qatar47c68,069$31,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,992.439345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Qatar44c67,500$29,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,70018738%71 W · 116 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Canada51c60,000$30,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,40017949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02af…aaa9backed Qatar49c57,051$27,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,954.9913448.5%65 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d85…197fbacked Qatar49c50,588$24,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,788.117851.3%40 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2862…5586backed Canada52c50,000$25,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,249.863237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Qatar44c45,000$19,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,8004134.1%14 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Qatar45c40,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00010056%56 W · 44 L+11.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Qatar44c40,000$17,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,599.9817748%85 W · 92 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Qatar48c39,872$19,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,249.716842.6%29 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Qatar44c39,610$17,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,428.397345.2%33 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Qatar47c38,665$18,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,277.8551032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Canada56c37,576$21,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,533.653448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Qatar46c36,024$16,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,398.931,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a7…b6e9backed Qatar44c35,156$15,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,468.758046.3%37 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeee…20fbbacked Qatar48c32,824$15,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,755.682445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Qatar48c30,873$14,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,786.128162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eaf…a3a1backed Qatar45c30,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,5003930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb84…5fb5backed Qatar48c28,367$13,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,474.615843.1%25 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Canada54c25,000$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,5002937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Qatar49c24,000$11,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,76036250.8%184 W · 178 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Qatar46c23,913$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0008348.2%40 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Qatar44c23,000$10,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,1203154.8%17 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Qatar48c22,625$10,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,860.9612255.7%68 W · 54 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Qatar48c21,295$10,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,221.617852.2%93 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Qatar18c20,996$3,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,826.922,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Qatar45c20,663$9,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,298.1736031.7%114 W · 246 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a54…7191backed Qatar46c20,120$9,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,156.110556.2%59 W · 46 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd684…f320backed Canada52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6006045%27 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf285…ab24backed Qatar46c20,000$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,299.799253.3%49 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a6…627bbacked Canada51c19,608$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,607.8411645.7%53 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Canada56c19,417$10,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,573.842,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b5…c5a8backed Qatar45c18,000$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,1002462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55f9…8615backed Qatar45c17,494$7,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,870.021850%9 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Qatar47c17,000$8,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,009.9723949.4%118 W · 121 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Qatar45c15,240$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,899.91428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Canada52c15,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20011443%49 W · 65 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Qatar46c14,048$6,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,430.461,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Qatar47c13,209$6,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,257.61,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Qatar46c13,043$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0006947.8%33 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Qatar46c13,000$5,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,92013746.7%64 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Qatar43c11,940$5,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,134.255749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Qatar46c11,909$5,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,468.978,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62b2…cec5backed Qatar45c11,771$5,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,296.84966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed Canada52c11,193$5,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,374.7927345.8%125 W · 148 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Qatar45c11,111$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.957545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…cff4backed Qatar46c10,870$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010849.1%53 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cea…e48ebacked Qatar45c10,844$4,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,844.1424146.1%111 W · 130 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Canada56c10,566$5,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6492441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3673…2d13backed Qatar48c10,563$5,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,033.515457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x379a…5122backed Qatar44c10,318$4,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5409948.5%48 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Qatar45c10,290$4,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,628.171,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Canada51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90018837.2%70 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Qatar0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1075335.6%268 W · 485 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Canada56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40074447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Qatar47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70020044.5%89 W · 111 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Qatar46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60012536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Canada56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4005349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4608…d049backed Qatar45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5008458.3%49 W · 35 L+9.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Canada51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.9713331.6%42 W · 91 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85df…1e1ebacked Qatar1c9,761$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.025442.6%23 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Qatar49c9,600$4,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70437850.5%191 W · 187 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Qatar45c9,303$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,180.238251.2%42 W · 40 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Canada55c9,245$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,160.1920448%98 W · 106 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Qatar48c9,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,32019038.9%74 W · 116 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac1c…d8b5backed Canada56c8,929$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.5714734%50 W · 97 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a23…4454backed Canada56c8,929$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.572259.1%13 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Canada56c8,866$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,866.374854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Canada53c8,840$4,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,155.81,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x119b…ac3ebacked Canada57c8,772$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,771.938944.9%40 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Qatar46c8,751$3,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,998.8121849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Qatar46c8,696$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0007452.7%39 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Qatar49c8,507$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,143.3147144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Qatar46c8,500$3,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,894.991,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Qatar49c8,400$4,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,11638351.4%197 W · 186 L-1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa698…db5ebacked Canada51c8,382$4,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,107.187962%49 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Qatar49c8,000$3,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,896.4750243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.