TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Manchester City FCof Manchester City FC, Chelsea FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$251,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$350,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,396 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Manchester City FC29c81,777$23,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,838.2411445.6%52 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Chelsea FC71c40,934$29,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,062.8513748.2%66 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Chelsea FC71c33,177$23,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,649.0417557.1%100 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chelsea FC70c10,966$7,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,652.546,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Chelsea FC70c8,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60014652.1%76 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Manchester City FC28c7,446$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,346.918345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Chelsea FC72c6,376$4,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,575.572,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Manchester City FC41c4,358$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.882,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Manchester City FC28c3,417$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.343847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chelsea FC72c3,329$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.484,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Chelsea FC70c3,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10014158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e4…1cedbacked Manchester City FC28c2,362$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.471136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc198…6d2cbacked Manchester City FC29c2,311$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.79850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Manchester City FC29c2,099$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.549746.4%45 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Chelsea FC70c2,005$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.5621056.7%119 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Manchester City FC28c1,879$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.191637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Manchester City FC29c1,819$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.5319426.3%51 W · 143 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Chelsea FC72c1,388$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.3132345.2%146 W · 177 L-1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chelsea FC72c1,371$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.6456051.4%288 W · 272 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Chelsea FC72c1,366$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.25255.8%29 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked Chelsea FC73c1,356$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City FC24c1,307$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.3845936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Chelsea FC70c1,247$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.5813155%72 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Manchester City FC28c1,196$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.126229%18 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Chelsea FC73c1,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7301346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Chelsea FC70c900$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63014355.9%80 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Chelsea FC71c892.14$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.632040%8 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefed…aecdbacked Manchester City FC28c888.46$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.691637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+51.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed Manchester City FC29c831.9$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.582532%8 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Chelsea FC70c800$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56014354.5%78 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2807…27d5backed Chelsea FC4c753.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.162524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Manchester City FC29c732.91$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.366634.8%23 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Chelsea FC79c666.63$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.6340655.2%224 W · 182 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Manchester City FC29c660.28$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.86437.5%24 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…0817backed Manchester City FC28c632.17$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+178.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4f…6dddbacked Manchester City FC28c621.92$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.788643%37 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Chelsea FC70c600$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42012757.5%73 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Manchester City FC27c593.35$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.7511229.5%33 W · 79 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc274…6d59backed Manchester City FC29c577.15$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.776144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Chelsea FC71c557.79$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.6181053.6%434 W · 376 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1880…a421backed Manchester City FC28c546.74$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+85.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Chelsea FC70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35014658.2%85 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Manchester City FC29c495.21$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.66136.1%22 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d25…835ebacked Manchester City FC30c479$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.31154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed Manchester City FC28c444.23$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.8410736.4%39 W · 68 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Chelsea FC77c438.2$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.9339555.9%221 W · 174 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Chelsea FC77c434.32$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.6711555.7%64 W · 51 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Chelsea FC77c428.27$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.0530057%171 W · 129 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Chelsea FC70c420$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29417959.8%107 W · 72 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Chelsea FC70c420$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29418156.4%102 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dca…ce96backed Manchester City FC36c416.84$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.732420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e1…f4f9backed Manchester City FC78c407.66$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa8bb…e40fbacked Chelsea FC73c380.67$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.893948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Chelsea FC70c370$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25916858.3%98 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Manchester City FC32c354.27$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.6374644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4d…0486backed Manchester City FC27c354.15$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.53742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb602…1991backed Manchester City FC29c330.14$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.4875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf853…8088backed Manchester City FC29c329.64$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.051338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Manchester City FC41c307.22$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.8410847.2%51 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Chelsea FC72c304.83$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+66.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Chelsea FC73c302.32$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.79154.9%50 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9eb…aee9backed Chelsea FC70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102544%11 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Chelsea FC70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21012558.4%73 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Chelsea FC70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21011457%65 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe867…0905backed Chelsea FC25c298.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.496543.1%28 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b4…1483backed Manchester City FC17c279.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.962055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+69.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Manchester City FC28c262.81$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2256241.5%233 W · 329 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Chelsea FC72c260.53$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5822146.2%102 W · 119 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4cd…a98dbacked Chelsea FC78c251.15$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Chelsea FC72c248.16$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.684656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Chelsea FC79c228.27$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4223556.2%132 W · 103 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Manchester City FC21c225.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.533438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Manchester City FC30c218.49$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.942737%10 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Chelsea FC79c212.71$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0827552.7%145 W · 130 L-1.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9759…cb52backed Manchester City FC18c211.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.261717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Chelsea FC72c203$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1627752.3%145 W · 132 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x772f…a69fbacked Manchester City FC28c195.36$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.661428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Manchester City FC28c194.28$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.7716136.6%59 W · 102 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4740…fa66backed Manchester City FC28c191.36$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.782634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Manchester City FC26c186.13$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3940942.1%172 W · 237 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Manchester City FC64c183.96$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7561143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Chelsea FC79c175.28$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.469352.7%49 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Chelsea FC80c170.41$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5816757.5%96 W · 71 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Manchester City FC17c167.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.186428.1%18 W · 46 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84dc…a8b1backed Manchester City FC29c166.85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.461428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Manchester City FC29c165.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.21030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb03…9732backed Manchester City FC29c165.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.27847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed Manchester City FC29c162.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.446142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2508…e25cbacked Manchester City FC31c155.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Chelsea FC73c152.49$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3210765.4%70 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf45…c794backed Manchester City FC27c150$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.53246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Chelsea FC72c147.48$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.192744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcbd…191dbacked Manchester City FC28c141.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.012857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbb7…8adcbacked Manchester City FC28c140.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.872646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa6…e929backed Manchester City FC28c134.37$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.094337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1669…1363backed Manchester City FC29c132.06$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.762638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Chelsea FC78c126.13$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.728859.7%172 W · 116 L+19.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9204…7bd5backed Manchester City FC29c124.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.372828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927b…8091backed Manchester City FC27c124.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.741050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4107…aad5backed Manchester City FC17c110.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.81580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick32cpaid+190.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.