Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b41e384246413c0978ed2878aed8d59f5d1cdddda872d1fc3fde59d13319ee3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Over | 3c | 4,214$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 4,104$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.92 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 4,075$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.88 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Over | 12c | 2,789$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.83 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 78c | 2,020$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.66 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 23c | 1,655$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 78c | 1,485$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.7 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 24c | 1,312$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.95 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 15c | 1,215$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.21 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 542.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 24c | 429.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 369.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 77c | 350$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 9c | 337.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…b5a0backed Over | 15c | 288.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Under | 79c | 251.05$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 5c | 209.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 15c | 188.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 18c | 145$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 13c | 137.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Under | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 24c | 119.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…ce96backed Over | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…cfa6backed Over | 21c | 108.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…fac0backed Under | 77c | 105.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…97f1backed Over | 23c | 98.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 74c | 96.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Over | 24c | 95.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 80c | 94.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x317f…3a7abacked Over | 19c | 75.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…d11dbacked Over | 24c | 47.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 28c | 44.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 77c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 80c | 32.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Under | 80c | 32.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 80c | 32.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 80c | 32.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 80c | 32.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 202 | 59.9%121 W · 81 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 80c | 32.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 80c | 32.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 78c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464d…d99bbacked Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 78c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…d1a5backed Under | 78c | 16.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1d…7132backed Under | 78c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.