TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Brazil (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Haitiof Brazil, Haiti
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,620,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,626,518

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,620,458 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 651 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Haiti67c398,192$268,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130,026.2577152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Brazil33c212,068$70,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,00019644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Brazil31c100,000$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,999.9322348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Haiti62c82,547$51,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,515.894,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Haiti68c63,346$43,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,152.7615843%68 W · 90 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Haiti67c62,049$41,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,205.7274447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Brazil34c54,801$18,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,359.3214727.2%40 W · 107 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Brazil40c50,112$20,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,068.042,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf1…d61abacked Brazil0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509340.9%38 W · 55 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Brazil15c40,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00026320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Haiti68c38,623$26,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,435.383,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Brazil30c30,707$9,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,301.193,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Brazil31c28,403$8,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,888.0820844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Haiti66c22,222$14,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,555.4821836.2%79 W · 139 L-19.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Brazil31c20,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,20018740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Haiti66c20,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,80037959.1%224 W · 155 L+20.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Brazil24c19,563$4,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,656.1613351.1%68 W · 65 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Brazil71c14,565$10,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,295.4958049.1%285 W · 295 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Brazil31c12,598$3,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,905.383721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Brazil74c11,309$8,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,348.292,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Haiti68c10,254$6,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,281.2214232.4%46 W · 96 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Haiti67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30036250.8%184 W · 178 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed Brazil33c9,999$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.6727345.8%125 W · 148 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41a8…ff67backed Brazil32c9,375$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0007448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Brazil52c9,344$4,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,901.11,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Haiti66c9,070$5,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100.661,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Haiti69c8,329$5,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,606.362,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93eb…c387backed Brazil37c7,084$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.398349.4%41 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3cea…e48ebacked Haiti67c6,861$4,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25724146.1%111 W · 130 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Brazil32c6,842$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.171,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Brazil42c6,800$2,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,868933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14eb…2e34backed Brazil32c6,250$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00027433.9%93 W · 181 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Brazil30c6,087$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.461,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Brazil30c6,065$1,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.91,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe214…c5cebacked Brazil32c6,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92022437.1%83 W · 141 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab6…05febacked Brazil32c6,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9206132.8%20 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba1d…d326backed Brazil76c5,563$4,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,228.0721946.1%101 W · 118 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Haiti68c5,214$3,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.4650243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95f7…5541backed Brazil69c5,205$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.8710544.8%47 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1ec…2d0ebacked Brazil31c5,000$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5709719.6%19 W · 78 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Haiti66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70077845%350 W · 428 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Haiti67c4,736$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.8818850%94 W · 94 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Brazil32c4,688$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50014829.7%44 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed Haiti25c4,050$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,026.2825753.3%137 W · 120 L+23.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Haiti67c4,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32037850.5%191 W · 187 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Brazil32c4,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28035446%163 W · 191 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Haiti67c3,680$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.426454.5%144 W · 120 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Haiti59c3,538$2,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.042,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Haiti67c3,500$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15538351.4%197 W · 186 L-1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Haiti65c3,399$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.55749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Brazil30c3,332$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.671638.4%275 W · 441 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Brazil45c3,299$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.1153629.9%160 W · 376 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde45…8597backed Brazil31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009538.9%37 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd8…7749backed Brazil31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016041.3%66 W · 94 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30e1…8be4backed Brazil32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68b4…e777backed Brazil32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed Brazil31c3,103$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.978530.6%26 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Haiti67c3,079$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.474,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Brazil32c3,051$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.3258029.5%171 W · 409 L-19.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcfb…efc0backed Brazil30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9007129.6%21 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Haiti67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99035251.7%182 W · 170 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ede…4284backed Haiti43c2,992$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.8418738%71 W · 116 L+0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Haiti37c2,992$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.8432656.1%183 W · 143 L+29.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc16c…a3aabacked Brazil31c2,970$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.065863.8%37 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Brazil31c2,913$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.61,06749.1%524 W · 543 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Brazil31c2,858$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88624917.7%44 W · 205 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe512…43d1backed Brazil22c2,717$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5871833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Haiti40c2,657$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.7536234%123 W · 239 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed Haiti69c2,628$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.118839.9%75 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Brazil31c2,600$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80613731.4%43 W · 94 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Brazil32c2,503$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.968,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Haiti69c2,476$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.7452744.4%234 W · 293 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Brazil55c2,396$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.9998134.8%341 W · 640 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a68…ad4cbacked Brazil29c2,391$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.274119.5%8 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Haiti69c2,371$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.321,70236.7%625 W · 1,077 L-31.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Brazil31c2,207$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.172,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Brazil64c2,199$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.761,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62f…fca5backed Brazil31c2,189$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.735749.1%28 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Brazil32c2,188$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70012634.9%44 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Haiti67c2,090$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.759752.1%311 W · 286 L-2.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de8…76babacked Brazil49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Brazil31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62019345.1%87 W · 106 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Haiti67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66039050.8%198 W · 192 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Haiti67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66038451.6%198 W · 186 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Haiti68c1,984$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.083,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed Brazil31c1,941$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.9932647.9%156 W · 170 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Brazil31c1,826$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.381,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Haiti69c1,824$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.6129449%144 W · 150 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Brazil57c1,801$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.6741968.3%286 W · 133 L+65.4wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x7fb0…34ecbacked Brazil30c1,800$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5403658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Brazil62c1,784$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.361,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Haiti68c1,761$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.6113952.5%73 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…12ccbacked Brazil57c1,740$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.3512943.4%56 W · 73 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Brazil50c1,728$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.4820646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fa9…9a60backed Brazil29c1,724$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b43…f35ebacked Brazil78c1,721$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3402846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Haiti68c1,702$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.113,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Brazil69c1,681$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.861,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd582…4561backed Brazil30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58b…e1b6backed Brazil31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.