TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Brazil (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Haitiof Brazil, Haiti
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$717,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$706,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $717,359 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Haiti73c194,845$141,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,213.844,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Brazil23c109,751$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00019644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Brazil15c50,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,499.9726320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Haiti77c37,068$28,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,558.674,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Haiti61c24,387$14,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,578.7177845%350 W · 428 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Haiti12c20,723$2,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,301.9851859.8%310 W · 208 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Brazil19c20,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.9818740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Haiti76c17,513$13,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,203.235749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe214…c5cebacked Brazil19c13,000$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.6722437.1%83 W · 141 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Haiti77c12,265$9,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820.8421836.2%79 W · 139 L-19.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Brazil49c12,000$5,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,879.9924058.8%141 W · 99 L+19.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Haiti71c11,753$8,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,432.2277152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c3…0566backed Haiti38c11,064$4,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,829.633357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Haiti1c10,795$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,687.051421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+677.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Haiti49c10,704$5,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,459.1819038.9%74 W · 116 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Brazil17c10,540$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.21,55952.4%817 W · 742 L+97.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Brazil18c10,003$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.5653448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Haiti75c10,000$7,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.024854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Brazil52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0005959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Haiti80c9,535$7,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.042,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8f…d0e4backed Haiti21c9,146$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,186.4410137.6%38 W · 63 L+14.5wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+45.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xcae4…e479backed Brazil59c8,391$4,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,918.141428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid+56.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed Brazil19c7,778$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.7827345.8%125 W · 148 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Haiti75c7,049$5,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.064,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Haiti48c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,639.9612536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Brazil18c6,604$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.132,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1ec…2d0ebacked Brazil43c6,200$2,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6549719.6%19 W · 78 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Haiti69c5,445$3,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.5868141.1%280 W · 401 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Brazil18c5,418$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.3558029.5%171 W · 409 L-19.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Brazil24c5,199$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.652,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Brazil19c4,808$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.2824917.7%44 W · 205 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Brazil17c4,637$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.972,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Haiti69c4,400$3,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36913548.9%66 W · 69 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed Brazil50c3,600$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-69.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Brazil51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.988047.5%38 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Brazil26c2,847$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.612,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Brazil39c2,717$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.391,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Brazil24c2,703$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.22,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Brazil17c2,700$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45913731.4%43 W · 94 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Brazil31c2,670$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.8153629.9%160 W · 376 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Haiti76c2,446$1,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.791,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e1…8be4backed Brazil21c2,402$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Brazil17c2,107$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.2479149.2%389 W · 402 L+28.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Haiti37c2,036$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.689247.8%44 W · 48 L+18.5wins+0.20per pick28cpaid+50.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Brazil52c2,000$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.6321850%109 W · 109 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Brazil18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9738526.8%103 W · 282 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2053…1eedbacked Brazil18c1,972$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.389324.7%23 W · 70 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x218d…a9aabacked Brazil10c1,920$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.11942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Brazil33c1,880$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.461,38040.2%555 W · 825 L-51.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Haiti80c1,875$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.51,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7997…5e4bbacked Brazil51c1,860$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.622452.2%117 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked Haiti33c1,800$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2064035%14 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1cf…f870backed Brazil52c1,749$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed Brazil25c1,735$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.7825753.3%137 W · 120 L+23.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc096…9e8dbacked Haiti53c1,688$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.7511335.4%40 W · 73 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Haiti50c1,686$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.8229232.9%96 W · 196 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3803…7eafbacked Haiti1c1,600$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,58420850.5%105 W · 103 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+95.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x036b…ead4backed Brazil18c1,585$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.22045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36d…3654backed Haiti1c1,546$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.111100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+7,394.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Haiti74c1,538$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.755925.4%15 W · 44 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-53%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Brazil25c1,519$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37560821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Brazil20c1,505$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012634.9%44 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90d4…2deebacked Haiti21c1,500$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.467630.3%23 W · 53 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-1.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38b0…dd47backed Brazil20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006129.5%18 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Brazil17c1,488$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4948055.2%265 W · 215 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Haiti15c1,445$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.4170948.9%347 W · 362 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Brazil21c1,429$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30028025%70 W · 210 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4edd…ddf1backed Brazil25c1,429$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.8827034.4%93 W · 177 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Brazil17c1,400$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9622943.7%100 W · 129 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160c…185cbacked Brazil17c1,373$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.0416633.7%56 W · 110 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Brazil17c1,372$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2451315.6%80 W · 433 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Haiti80c1,258$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.752,41153%1,278 W · 1,133 L+75.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd044…a6febacked Brazil17c1,250$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.53633.3%12 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf29a…3122backed Brazil20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25016637.3%62 W · 104 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Haiti30c1,200$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8446144.3%27 W · 34 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8390…09f1backed Brazil17c1,200$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20414235.9%51 W · 91 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Brazil17c1,195$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018544.9%83 W · 102 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Haiti47c1,106$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.972,53346.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L+12.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Brazil18c1,096$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.98,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd33a…1fe2backed Brazil23c1,079$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24510929.4%32 W · 77 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Brazil18c1,000$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9417030%51 W · 119 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Brazil51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5106437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3bc…2f60backed Brazil50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Brazil19c999.98$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19047032.8%154 W · 316 L-0.7wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Brazil7c999.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7019823.7%47 W · 151 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Brazil17c999$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8322643.4%98 W · 128 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eab…4822backed Brazil51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013447.8%64 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Brazil17c934$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7877051.3%395 W · 375 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd9e…49b3backed Brazil18c907.56$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.291145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Brazil38c896.83$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.6620646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e60…3badbacked Brazil35c872.48$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.58627.9%24 W · 62 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Brazil37c856.47$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.91,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Brazil19c833.28$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.891,68620.6%347 W · 1,339 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Brazil20c776.95$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3936123.5%85 W · 276 L-1.7wins0.00per pick24cpaid-21.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Brazil51c745.1$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3808143.2%35 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Brazil17c744.29$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5383153.3%443 W · 388 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Haiti77c719.22$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.261,66941.6%694 W · 975 L+15.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa8f…fd07backed Brazil51c699.08$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.534833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Brazil50c693.38$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.6928042.1%118 W · 162 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Brazil29c691.95$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2939039%152 W · 238 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.