Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8799b30b74802bd629a1b5989179a20c1db757edbae0700d406a11d9a2887e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,529$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.56 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 698.94$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.19 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 59c | 524.07$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.87 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 476.38$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 35c | 473$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.55 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 41c | 459.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.59 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 319.33$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.83 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…eb41backed Yes | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 44c | 170.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…1107backed No | 41c | 135.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 59c | 131.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 56c | 113.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 55c | 99.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…6fd4backed Yes | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 47c | 66.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Yes | 54c | 38.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed No | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 44c | 33.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…4041backed Yes | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b0…f46cbacked Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…e4e8backed Yes | 59c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.