Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba66e47f7dacd550b13c0a1c7c9e78d931b4efea4af600b13bce65acd2de92c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 352.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 31c | 283.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 76c | 258.01$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Over | 79c | 249.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 163.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 23c | 161.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 142.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 61c | 97.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 63c | 70.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 37c | 55.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…0b59backed Over | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.