Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe982074611ba08c8d2aeaba1febf7efdcb3a9ed59abbf4ad6040bfffa0bfa71d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 10,105$3,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,620.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 80c | 4,999$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.21 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 80c | 3,140$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 48c | 1,999$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.6 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 1,939$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.08 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 20c | 1,078$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.72 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 74c | 700$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 49c | 635.81$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.07 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 48c | 440$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 399.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Over | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d35fbacked Over | 79c | 378.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 20c | 345.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.18 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 326.37$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.38 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 321.58$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.89 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 22c | 318.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.18 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 62c | 309.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.79 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 27c | 285.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.19 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 256.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.36 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 51c | 254.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…d60ebacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 50c | 200.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 40c | 169.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 9c | 148.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 57c | 128.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 121.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 38c | 118.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 50c | 116.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Under | 58c | 114.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 39c | 113.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 20c | 88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 58c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 21c | 77.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Under | 25c | 69.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…aa8dbacked Under | 78c | 41.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +66%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Over | 50c | 39.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 50c | 37.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 35.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…bfdabacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…af03backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 44c | 24.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 79c | 24.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…fe2abacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 71cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5Under won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5Under won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.