Bundesliga · resolved market

DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec236c5e3a069cfb3280ba5d4c455bb4cfe70fadc2e711218189d5c55049d7f1

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $573,648
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $573,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $573,648 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Under	46c	537,793$247,317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290,475.74	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-5.1wins	-0.18per pick	50cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	54c	199,734$107,856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107,856.28	147	56.5%83 W · 64 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over	54c	150,000$81,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81,000	94	55.3%52 W · 42 L	+5.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over	54c	145,535$78,589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78,588.68	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	53c	18,402$9,803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,803.41	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	55c	6,738$3,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,696.3	1,681	45.2%759 W · 922 L	+6.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	54c	6,067$3,290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,290.27	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	45c	5,000$2,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,750	332	44.6%148 W · 184 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	45c	4,320$1,965 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,964.84	89	55.1%49 W · 40 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	53c	3,843$2,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,050.17	1,355	50.9%690 W · 665 L	+12.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Over	54c	3,333$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,799.82	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under	44c	2,572$1,132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,440.29	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	54c	1,458$786 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$672.16	1,013	44.5%451 W · 562 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over	19c	1,421$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.9	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-5.9wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over	57c	1,400$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$798	134	61.9%83 W · 51 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	45c	1,301$586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715.65	536	45.9%246 W · 290 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	57c	877.9$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	187	59.4%111 W · 76 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over	55c	799.98$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.99	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over	57c	614.04$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	380	55.8%212 W · 168 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	39c	580.78$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.91	1,305	40.8%532 W · 773 L	-42.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	55c	500$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	486	58.6%285 W · 201 L	+44.5wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+33%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over	51c	419.61$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-41%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Over	21c	400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+46%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over	55c	364$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.2	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee26…9dcabacked Over	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+3.7wins	+0.20per pick	41cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over	45c	299.99$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	81	24.7%20 W · 61 L	-5.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Over	57c	263.16$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	176	52.3%92 W · 84 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	54c	260.64$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.63	817	32.8%268 W · 549 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	95	48.4%46 W · 49 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Over	55c	205.13$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.82	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	118	57.6%68 W · 50 L	+15.7wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Under	69c	203.97$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.79	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.6wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a84…0e54backed Over	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.16per pick	30cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4588…d206backed Over	56c	200$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.9wins	-0.13per pick	54cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd829…d60ebacked Over	56c	198.38$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.09	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over	19c	185.06$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over	41c	182.86$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	264	33.3%88 W · 176 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over	53c	172.46$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.55	109	43.1%47 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Over	56c	150$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	+19%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Over	57c	131.58$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Under	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+3.1wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+50.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	43c	124.99$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.25	636	45.1%287 W · 349 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Under	44c	113.64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.64	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Under	44c	109.64$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.4	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Over	55c	109.29$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x546e…ec0cbacked Over	57c	107.75$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.42	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over	57c	105.26$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	221	57%126 W · 95 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over	55c	104.88$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.79	306	47.1%144 W · 162 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	43c	100.83$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.47	481	46.4%223 W · 258 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	82	43.9%36 W · 46 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Under	46c	94.56$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…22efbacked Over	57c	92.93$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.97	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	253	52.2%132 W · 121 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over	57c	87.81$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	209	57.4%120 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf2…0f0dbacked Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x650e…9147backed Over	57c	87.25$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.73	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under	43c	85.98$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.01	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfabc…a31bbacked Over	57c	76.96$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.87	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Under	45c	76.04$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.82	50	38%19 W · 31 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf7…ed48backed Over	50c	70$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe894…d8dfbacked Under	45c	65.48$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.02	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3008…5cb6backed Under	45c	61.7$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.21	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a53dbacked Over	56c	57.86$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Over	55c	54.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	117	48.7%57 W · 60 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed Over	56c	53.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.13	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa03…45e9backed Over	56c	53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.56	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc307…bf36backed Under	44c	51.34$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.75	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c16…c36fbacked Over	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…3a2abacked Over	56c	45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f61…4e52backed Under	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+44%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	44c	41$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.07	1,083	50.8%550 W · 533 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over	55c	40.04$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.02	121	57.9%70 W · 51 L	+8.9wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd265…a7ecbacked Under	45c	37.67$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.72	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5046…7676backed Over	56c	37.27$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under	64c	34.46$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.56	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf52f…b2f5backed Over	56c	33.84$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Over	56c	31.25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Over	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	80	67.5%54 W · 26 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	225	62.2%140 W · 85 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0338…6562backed Over	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…f362backed Over	55c	25.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed Over	54c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Over	55c	20.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df6…91f1backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1878…85e2backed Over	56c	18.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5this page
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5Under won
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5Under won
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event